50/1 200 button ante 99 OOP deep

[TetraFlare]

This hand happened several weeks ago but for some reason it has been bothering me lately.

Effective stacks are roughly 50k, live game at the V.

Villain in this hand is a pretty tight player and somewhat straight forward. He seems to be uncomfortable with postflop play because he always opens for anywhere from 800 to 1200 preflop.

I'm dealt 99 in BB and Villain opens in LP for 800. SB (Gabe Thaler not sure if that matters I don't know what his SB def range is) calls and I pump it to 3200. Villain stares at me and calls after about a minute of thinking. SB calls.

At this point I narrow Villains hand range to AK, AQs, QQ/JJ, and maybe some random suited connectors. I'm not too worried about SB as I think he's just trying to flop big with either a small/med pp or some suited connectors or possibly Ax suited. I plan to shutdown if he plays back at me.

Flop 3 3 2 rainbow
SB checks, I fire 6400, Villain ponders for another minute or two and calls, SB folds.

Now I believe Villain definitely has a pair higher than nines. I'm pretty sure it's not AA/KK because he would have 4b preflop with them. QQ-TT is his most likely holding.

Turn J
Do I shutdown here? Fire again?

Like I said Villain seems to be uncomfortable with postflop play. We have no prior history and I haven't reraised yet preflop this session. Is it a good idea to bluff this turn (assuming he has QQ-TT) and put pressure on him to fold? He seems like the type able/willing to muck tens to a second barrel and obviously he's not folding jacks anymore. The question is whether or not he'll muck queens. If I bet turn, am I obligated to shove river?

[klownage]

lol @ preflop.

[Chaoslord]

its live and ppl dont like to fold overpairs so no i dont think its a good idea..
the only hand u can get him off is tens or nines i think.
id just check it down and hope he has sevens...

i might second barrel AK here, 6 outs or 2 might not seem like a huge difference but with the fold equity and the possibilty to make some money on the river if u hit its enough for me

[Borned_Luckbox1]

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lol @ preflop.

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???

[Jman28]

There's no bet/raise you've made where you've expected to be called by worse hands. Why bother having 99?

Also, why can't he have 44?

[praios]

check it down

[Kirkrrr]

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There's no bet/raise you've made where you've expected to be called by worse hands. Why bother having 99?

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I really don't like this... because if Villain is decent he should be opening in LP with a wide enough range so we have the best hand here a lot and there's enough dead money already that we don't mind just taking it down pf... if we get called we have initiative in the hand and we are not going to be floated by a "straightforward villain who's uncomfortable playing post-flop," so we will take it down on the flop the majority of the time anyway... and if we hit our 99 we can take down a huge pot.

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Also, why can't he have 44?

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I agree with that. I'd probably just check turn and fold to any bet versus the type of villain described, and consider bluffing an A/K river if turn gets checked through, otherwise just trying to check it down. That turn would scare me enough to not try to be a hero there.

Kirk

[HedonismBot]

Don't you think betting 15K will fold out everything but JJ? If he has queens he probably thinks for a couple minutes and then folds. Unless he is more likely to cold call KK pre than you think he is, but I think its a good bet

[TetraFlare]

I think Kirk and I are on the same train of thought with reraising 99 and then folding out worse hands with a bet on the flop.

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Don't you think betting 15K will fold out everything but JJ? If he has queens he probably thinks for a couple minutes and then folds. Unless he is more likely to cold call KK pre than you think he is, but I think its a good bet

[/ QUOTE ]

This is along the lines I was thinking of. On the turn, we are pretty certain we're beat (I really don't see Villain calling the flop bet with 44 since the only hand he can beat is AK at that point and he has to deal with multiple streets). The question I want to ask is if there is a way to win with the worse hand in this pot? Or is checking it down and hoping he has something less than 99 the best option?

[n8str8]

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There's no bet/raise you've made where you've expected to be called by worse hands. Why bother having 99?

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I really don't like this... because if Villain is decent he should be opening in LP with a wide enough range so we have the best hand here a lot and there's enough dead money already that we don't mind just taking it down pf...


[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. We dont have position. Getting called in this spot leads exactly to the kind of dicey situations OP mentions. This is a good play to mix it up every now and then but not something I would do regularly.

I would prefer PF call followed by either check-fold or check-raise lines depending on what I can gather about the strength of his and SB's hand. The check-raise might also give us a chance to represent whatever he dosent like on the flop such as 44.

As played, I actually like the turn bluff. If he is any kind of a player, he would lay QQ down in this spot. If he makes a crying call with QQ here, we will very likely get his money at a later time. How is your image OP? Have you given him any reason to doubt you holding AA or KK in this spot? Also, there is no defense against JJ.

n8str8.