($22s) How is this -EV?

costanza_g · #1 07-10-2006, 07:34 PM

PartyPoker $22 Speed Tournament, Big Blind is t1200 with t50 antes (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t2840)
Button (t11729)
SB (t1974)
Hero (t3457)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
CO raises to t2840 (All-in), Button folds, SB folds, Hero calls t1590

Can someone explain to me how I can be getting 3:1, have him covered, and sngpt still says its -EV unless he pushes something crazy like 80% which hes obv not doing.

Is this one of those situations where sngpt doesnt factor in some intangables, or am i inputting something incorrectly?

tigerite · #2 07-10-2006, 07:35 PM

Calling it with J high and losing puts you on 600 chips I would guess. Which isn't particularly wonderful especially as you're then virtually all-in in the SB next hand.

Looks like a fold to me. I thought you realised that $EV is nothing like cEV especially on the bubble?

citanul · #3 07-10-2006, 07:37 PM

BOOOOO I hate when I read a post and then I'm going to write something somewhat harsh and clear and someone else has already done it.

POOOP.

oh wait, actually I love it when someone else does it first.

c

costanza_g · #4 07-10-2006, 07:44 PM

alright, so i fold. Im down to 2200, big stack open pushes any two next hand. Now im down to 1600, and i have to pray the 1200 shortstack doesnt double up in the next two hands so i can limp into third.

Or i call as a 2:1 dog with 3:1 odds, if i win this and i almost have 2nd locked up and a much better shot at first than i would with folding.

Meh? (I thought this was in $ev [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img])

mused · #5 07-10-2006, 08:04 PM

I've been wondering about this too. Too often does SnGPT tell me to fold when Button or SB pushes and I'm getting GREAT odds as well as a great spot to 1st. Yet I listen like a drone and fold.

Austiger · #6 07-10-2006, 08:31 PM

Although it's close, I think I would call. If you lose, you'll be all-in the next hand with the ante. But you would have to lose this hand AND the next hand to bust. If you win, you secure 3rd and are in good shape not only for 2nd but to possibly win. If you lose then, assuming Big Stack will push any2 next hand, you'll be getting 3-1 again on a 50/50 shot.

Austiger · #7 07-10-2006, 08:46 PM

Okay, I changed my mind. I didn't realize it wasn't big stack who pushed. Yeah it's a fold.