Thoughts on Fantasy Football So Far this Year

[capone0]

Well, were past 7 and into the 8th week of the season. Unlike the last couple of seasons, Quarterbacks seem to be the rage right now while running backs have been the rage for the last 3 years. In most of the leagues I'm in, it's a guy with either McNabb, Peyton or maybe Bulger who is leading the league while in years past it has usually been guys with LT, LJ or SA. Is this some changing of the guard? Or is it just some down year in the NFL for RBs. The last couple of years, those 3 RBs and maybe Priest have dominated the fantasy football scene. This year, LT and LJ have been good but not as good as either McNabb or Manning so far. I guess the argument is, there are many good QBs, thing is McNabb is so far ahead of anyone other than Peyton this year QB wise that his value is that high that it might have been worth an earlier pick on him (ie early first round).

Right now in ESPN leagues, McNabb is 57 points ahead of the second place player, Manning. Although McNabb has 1 more game to his name. Right now McNabb is averging ~26 ppg, while Manning is averaging 20 ppg which is almost 20% better than the #2 guy and 120% then the #16 guy (the median guy in NFL) and 37% better than the #5 guy who is Eli who is averaging about 15.6 ppg. This is a huge deal this year.

Likewise this year, the best running back is LT. He has 117 points in ESPN leagues. Westbrook is tied with him LT and both have played in 6 games (Westbrook was out) thus 19.5 ppg. Therefore there isn't much of a difference between 1 and 2 this year. #3 is LJ who has 106 points which is about 10% difference which is signicantly less. LT and LJ with respect to the 10th and 11th best RBs are 50% (10th and 11th would be the middle guys) which is still a huge difference but the difference between 10th and 11th and 20th is very small this year, only 16 points. Which is about a 2 ppg difference.

Last year Carson Palmer the #1 rated QB averaged 16.75 ppg in fantasy. #2, Brady, averaged 15 ppg which is pretty insignificant. Likewise the difference between #1 Carson and #5-#6 Eli/Hasseback is only 3 points per game while this year it's much bigger.

In 2005, the difference between the big 4 (includes Tiki) was huge in comparison to #10-11 spots. Tiki averaged 18.5 ppg, while the #10-11 only averaged 11 ppg a difference of 7 which is a 60% difference. While the difference between the #10 and #20 guy is still 2 ppg.

Thus the difference between the #1 and #2 QBs in the NFL to the rest of the Fantasy QBs is larger in comparison to years past while the difference between the top RBs has significantly shrunk. Like most years there is a huge group of players who are marginal. The key thing is the elite RBs are not as elite in years past, while McNabb and Manning seem to have a larger gap then in years past.

Wide Receiver numbers aren’t much different then years past. Although this year, at least right now, there seems to be a clump of good WRs the #10 and the #30 only have a difference of approximately 3 ppg.

[Pepsquad]

I was anticipating actually reading someone's thoughts on fantasy football this year.

[Victor]

interesting capone. good observations.

[A10Chief]

You are salty if you believed the hype and drafted any of these guys:

Culpepper, Kurt Warner, Randy Moss, Edgerrin James, Roethlisberger, Mike Bell (I cut T.J. Duckett to pick him up on waivers based on an implied odds type deal), the Steelers defense, T.O., Deion Branch, Shaun Alexander.

You are very happy if you drafted any of these guys who were not sure shots:

Kellen Winslow, Chester Taylor, Denver defense, Robbie Gould, Greg Jennings (did anyone actually draft this guy?), Jerricho Cotchery (or this guy for that matter?), Roydell Williams, Leon Washington (to be sure nobody drafted this guy, right?)

Who have I missed?

It's been a wild season so far, with Chicago's defense and special teams averaging 15 ppg in ESPN leagues. What's funny is in my league there are two Dallas fans. One of them was actually mad when the other one took Bledsoe, so he tried to spite him by taking T.O. Maybe it was the other way around, can't quite recall. Meanwhile, other people ended up with Glenn, Julius Jones, and Marion Barber.

[capone0]

Lamont, Cadillac, Chambers, Chad Johnson, Fitz, Warner, Carolina D, Reuben, Rackers, Branch etc.

[SuperUberBob]

Tiki Barber...nice touchdown sir.

[Aces McGee]

[ QUOTE ]
What's funny is in my league there are two Dallas fans. One of them was actually mad when the other one took Bledsoe, so he tried to spite him by taking T.O. Maybe it was the other way around, can't quite recall. Meanwhile, other people ended up with Glenn, Julius Jones, and Marion Barber.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure I get the humor here.

-McGee

[splashpot]

I think a big part of it has to do with lots of teams using RBBC (running back by committee).

I read some sports article by some analyst who predicted that the days of the workhorse running back are over. Backups are seeing more and more action these days. The only dominant workhorse back right now is LJ IMO. Alexander is out. Even Michael Turner takes touches away from LT.

Look at the number of teams that use a 1-2 RB combo, some to a greater degree than others.

Pats- Dillon, Maroney
Falcons- Dunn, Norwood
Cowboys- Jones, Barber
Bears- Jones, Benson
Texans- Lundy, Gado, Dayne
Colts- Rhodes, Addai
Jags- Taylor, Jones-Drew
Saints- McAllister, Bush
Giants- Barber, Jacobs
Jets- Barlow, Washington
Bucs- Williams, Pittman
Chargers- Tomlinson, Turner
Skins- Portis, Betts

There are others too, but the point is that most teams are doing it. And it's working for a lot of them.

[capone0]

Good point, might shift the drafts next year to be more QB heavy early on.

LJ really hasn't even been that dominant this year, of course I'm comparing that to last year. On the ground he is only averaging 3.7 YPC which is below a lot of the 1 back guys such as Chester, Tatum, Stephen Jackson, Westbrook etc. What's helping both LT and LJ is there ability to catch this year which brings them above some of the guys who are performing better than they are.

Alot of top flight backs this year are below 4.0 YPC:

Willis
Foster
Johnson
Parker
LT
Brown
T. Jones
J. Lewis

Last year with Roaf and their FB and of course Green, LJ averaged 5.2 YPC. SA averaged 5.1 with Hutch. James averaged 4.2 (2.8 or below this year). Rudi and LT averaged 4.3. Ronnie averaged 4.4. Jamal averaged 3.4 (I don't understand how he's still a back in the NFL).