NL25 J7s Flops Big Faces Turn Preasure

[QTip]

I've only been in the game for about 10 hands, but villain has been in 7 of those and pretty aggressive. Hard to make this mean anything tho.

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $.25 BB (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

CO ($10)
Button ($25.98)
Hero ($24.75)
BB ($24.79)
UTG ($35.96)
UTG+1 ($9.57)
UTG+2 ($25.48)
MP1 ($13.23)
MP2 ($18.30)
MP3 ($39.28)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($1) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $0.8</font>, BB folds, MP1 calls $0.80, CO folds.

Turn: ($2.60) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $6.35</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $10.20

[threads13]

I am thinking you at least have 11 good outs(7's and diamonds) which means you are a little less than a 3:1 underdog if you are behind. I think you can call here getting 2:1 with some implied odds if you hit any of your outs.

How about a check on the turn?

[Thrahl]

Fold pre flop. If villain is particularly loose/aggressive I would tend to check this turn. As played, fold.

[Das Budrick]

I complete with this too preflop. I like the idea of a turn check, in fact I probably c/c the flop too. I would fold as played.

[zman2245]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you can call here getting 2:1 with some implied odds if you hit any of your outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to take rest of villains chips in order to make a call +EV. And even then it is barely better than break even. I don't think you can do this 100% of the time so I think it's a pretty clear fold.

I would have also considered a check on the turn but I think betting is OK. Depends on opponent of course.

[threads13]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you can call here getting 2:1 with some implied odds if you hit any of your outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to take rest of villains chips in order to make a call +EV. And even then it is barely better than break even. I don't think you can do this 100% of the time so I think it's a pretty clear fold.

I would have also considered a check on the turn but I think betting is OK. Depends on opponent of course.

[/ QUOTE ]

You will improve 22% of the time(to trips or better) so you only need to find another 11% of equity to make it break even if you assume he has two-pair.

You might already be ahead and he might already be ahead if he is bluffing/semi-bluffing.

You may have as many as 14 outs(28% equity), which means you only actually need to be ahead 5% of the time to break even.

[zman2245]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you can call here getting 2:1 with some implied odds if you hit any of your outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to take rest of villains chips in order to make a call +EV. And even then it is barely better than break even. I don't think you can do this 100% of the time so I think it's a pretty clear fold.

I would have also considered a check on the turn but I think betting is OK. Depends on opponent of course.

[/ QUOTE ]

You will improve 22% of the time(to trips or better) so you only need to find another 11% of equity to make it break even if you assume he has two-pair.

You might already be ahead and he might already be ahead if he is bluffing/semi-bluffing.

You may have as many as 14 outs(28% equity), which means you only actually need to be ahead 5% of the time to break even.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't imagine hero being ahead here. You said yourself we have only 11 clean outs. 11/44 = .25 So we win about 25% of time. We are 3:1 to win. The pot is 10.20, villain has 5.80 left, we have to call 5.00.

So even with implied odds we are getting about 3:1. That would make this break even if we can stack villain every time when we hit our card.

[threads13]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you can call here getting 2:1 with some implied odds if you hit any of your outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to take rest of villains chips in order to make a call +EV. And even then it is barely better than break even. I don't think you can do this 100% of the time so I think it's a pretty clear fold.

I would have also considered a check on the turn but I think betting is OK. Depends on opponent of course.

[/ QUOTE ]

You will improve 22% of the time(to trips or better) so you only need to find another 11% of equity to make it break even if you assume he has two-pair.

You might already be ahead and he might already be ahead if he is bluffing/semi-bluffing.

You may have as many as 14 outs(28% equity), which means you only actually need to be ahead 5% of the time to break even.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't imagine hero being ahead here. You said yourself we have only 11 clean outs. 11/44 = .25 So we win about 25% of time. We are 3:1 to win. The pot is 10.20, villain has 5.80 left, we have to call 5.00.

So even with implied odds we are getting about 3:1. That would make this break even if we can stack villain every time when we hit our card.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with all of this but some non-zero percent of the time he is bluffing/semi-bluffing. The math is all in my post. What part of it don't you agree with?