Top set 200bb deep vs TAG on a brutal turn card

[aislephive]

All I know about villian is that he has pretty nitty stats, something like 19/12 IIRC, no history between us but I've been playing a standard aggressive 25/20 game.

Party Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$1/$2 Blinds
6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $257.88
Hero (BB): $402.32
UTG: $65.50
MP: $422.83
CO: $198.95
BTN: $249.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $8.00</font>, 3 folds, Hero calls $6.00

Flop: ($17) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $14.00</font>, <font color="red">MP raises to $28.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $77.00</font>, MP calls $49.00

Turn: ($171) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero ???

[derosnec]

what's he raising the flop with that makes the turn card brutal?

[the machine]

can we really bet fold here.

i hate checking so i think i bet 145 and call a shove. if hes ahead we have outs, and maybe even chop outs

[cbloom]

That turn's not bad at all, it doesn't complete the flush or the OESD, it only hits a gutshot. You should lead and call a shove.

[Unknown Soldier]

the turn i only bad as in it might scare villain off AA

how has he got a 3/8 here? I doubt he'd call that 3b w/88, but even if he would that's only 1 hand in his range

bet 100 to charge for f draw and I can't find a fold if he raises

[TheChad]

yeah, d00d, I don't know what you're scared of. I get it in.

[Michaelson]

CRAI?

[aislephive]

It's not so much that I'm afraid of being behind, it's just an overall horrible card for his range (sets/overpairs), which makes this hand interesting. If I bet, can an overpair really call with the threat of a big river bet looming? I might stack a set still, but 88 is still well within his range IMO, which makes betting the turn difficult because I'm in a pretty [censored] spot if raised.

[Nielsio]

On a positive note, 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] already beat you on the flop, so it doesn't matter much [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]


In all seriousness: I agree that you're pretty screwed if you get raised on the turn. His range is pretty wide: overpair, clubs, clubs+6, clubs+8, 44/55/66/77/88.


My read here is not strong enough to decide to go with the hand (for example: lead turn and if not raised, lead river strong).


In reality I would probably opt for a turn c/c and otherwise a river lead (obv). If I give a free card to clubs, then so be it. If I c/c turn I probably c/c river as well.

[terp]

the flop action really minimizes the significance of the next two streets.

bet something "blockish" like $85-105 and do the same on the river with the intention of calling a shove on either street