Protecting or value betting in big pot

[tomhc]

This is a question that i consider basic, so many of you won't be interested. But if any experienced player would care to respond, i would be grateful.
Question: once the pot is laying odds for others to draw to their big draws (usually the turn,) is it best to stop betting with the best hand? Assuming there are not enough players in the pot to make value betting a set for the times when opponents are going to hit their flush or straight draws but improve me to a fullhouse or quads.
Putting aside hopes that my bet might drive out a confused or timid player, is it best to save bets and not make the pot any juicer for the eventual winner?

[tomhc]

I realized afterposting that the using a set is a bad example and might lead to respondents wasting their time responding to the fact that with ten outs i probably would have pots odds. Having top two pair with four outs to improve is a better scenario.

[AKQJ10]

I don't think you fully grasp protecting a hand (which is a form of value betting). Protecting a hand means extracting as much value as possible out of the times the draw doesn't hit, so that it's still maximally profitable for you when it does hit. You'd like to deny your opponent proper odds to continue, then have him make an erroneous call anyway. But I think you're too caught up in the denying odds and inducing mistakes. I'd just as soon discard the "protecting your hand" terminology because people misunderstand it as "trying to force draws out". It just means you maximize the value you extract when you're best.

Suppose in LHE there are 10 bets in the pot and you're heads up on the turn. With infallible precision you put your opponent on a low flush draw, and you have two pair or some hand that's a lock if your opponent doesn't hit a flush. You can't possibly bet so much to make it unprofitable for the FD to call, but you can still bet so you make more money when the flush doesn't come in. 4/5 of the time that pot is going to be yours, and by staking your bet against your opponents bet you're increasing the pots that you win for more than you're paying when you lose. Passively checking means that you're converting your opponent's correct call into a "more correct" checking behind to take a free card.

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you, but if you know you figure to have the best hand 4/5 of the time by the river, then betting and getting called is a winning proposition. You said it best:

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is it best to save bets and not make the pot any juicer for the eventual winner?

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More often than not, you are the eventual winner! Now, if the pot gets three- or four-way, you might only be 35 or 40% to win -- but you still have more than your fair share and are getting paid off 2:1 or 3:1, so you want to maximize the size of the pot.

By the way -- not as an insult to your question, just for information -- there's a Beginners forum that gets overlooked because of its placement on the menu. You might find some good material there too.

[tomhc]

thank you. i think you read understood my question.

[Bantam222]

You are the favorite to win the hand. Lets say your opponent is drawing to the flush and is 20% to win, leaving you with 80%. Lets say there are 6 bets in the pot. On the turn if you bet, you will be gaining .8 a bet profit in the long run as you will win it 80% of the time. However, if you do bet, your opponent has odds to call and chase his flush, as he is a 1:4 favorite to win, and getting 1:7 pot odds.

[bernie]

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Assuming there are not enough players in the pot to make value betting a set for the times when opponents are going to hit their flush or straight draws but improve me to a fullhouse or quads.


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This doesn't even make sense. Could you possibly come up with an example where value betting with the best hand against drawing hands on the turn is -EV?

Yes, sometimes they may be getting the 'pot odds' to draw, however, that doesn't mean that they aren't costing themselves any money for each additional bet they're putting in on that street. (there are some cases, given enough players, where 1 person may actually be even or making money on this, however, you'd still be a big favorite over the other 5 players drawing near dead/dead at that point)

b

[bernie]

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I realized afterposting that the using a set is a bad example and might lead to respondents wasting their time responding to the fact that with ten outs i probably would have pots odds. Having top two pair with four outs to improve is a better scenario.

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The burden isn't on you to improve at this point. Unless you're thinking in terms of a 30+ out draw(which includes any blank cards hitting the river).

b

[AKQJ10]

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Could you possibly come up with an example where value betting with the best hand against drawing hands on the turn is -EV?

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Sure.

But I'd have to use an Omaha hand, and no one wants to hear about anything other than hold 'em.

[AaronBrown]

I agree with AKQJ10. I think you're thinking of a case when you bet the turn, see the suited card on the river, and regret making the turn bet. That does happen, but of course, more often you see a non-suited card on the river and the turn bet is extra profit. Also, there is some chance that a bet will induce a fold.

The only reason not to bet is to encourage a bet or call on the river even if the drawing hand misses. Depending on the situation, that might be a profitable play. All other things being equal, if there's a choice of just one, you'd rather have him call a bet on the river, after you've seen whether or not he makes his hand, than on the turn.

But that's not common. Generally, when you have the made hand, you make it as expensive as possible for other players to take shots at you.

[calc]

If you don't like to bet with the best hand, when do you like to bet?

Fact is in loose small stakes games the pot will often be so large that people can often call correctly on the flop and turn drawing very thin. The looser the game, the more times you will get sucked out on, but when you win the pots will be bigger which in the long run will more than make up for the suckouts.

Sometimes its correct to bet and raise even if its not clear you have the best hand. check calling and hoping your hand is still the best at the river is a definite losing strategy.