50NL: Huge draw on the flop (step by step)

[RapidEvolution]

Villain is 25/10/1 over a tiny sample (40 hands)

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG (<font color="#0000cc">$90.65</font>)
UTG+1 (<font color="#0000cc">$51.55</font>)
MP1 (<font color="#0000cc">$9.25</font>)
MP2 (<font color="#0000cc">$45.60</font>)
MP3 (<font color="#0000cc">$47.60</font>)
CO (<font color="#0000cc">$49.95</font>)
Hero (<font color="#0000cc">$85.30</font>)
SB (<font color="#0000cc">$59.85</font>)
BB (<font color="#0000cc">$47.55</font>)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 9 players) Hero is BTN A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#777777">3 folds</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises to $2</font>, <font color="#777777">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $2, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.5

I don't really have a set strat for suited aces in position, but when I call, it's basically for 2pair/float/semi-bluff value

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($8, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 bets $4</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero...</font>


I'd like to go over this particular hand in stages (I promise it won't take too long). Please include $$ amounts in posts for each step. (I think bet-sizing may be an issue of mine). [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] If the step-by-step thing is annoying, I'll just post the whole hand in a little while. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[CalledDownLight]

Call because of your position.

[Split Suit]

i decide in these spots that i generally want a HU pot with coinflip status (plus FE if/when they fold).

given his CB (1/2PSB), im thinkin he is probably pretty weak. tho he shudnt b, being that CBing lite into 3 others is burning up money. our equity goes down drastically on the turn in these spots, and i like high variance with big draws. also, our raise generally folds out all board pairs, and sometimes TT-JJ. (even tho QQ is practically the same hand given that thought, i think most villains wud still group QQ with AA/KK).

high variance FTW...raise to $16

[BadBigBabar]

i wouldn't say it's a huge draw as some of the time our pair outs are no good, but obviously it's the nfd. i'd just call most of the time.

[RapidLearner]

Calling sounds good for the following:

1) You'll have position
2) SB and BB may have weaker draws that will stick around, but fold to a raise. Plus, you should get a good amount of money if somebody else draws to a weaker straight or flush.
3) SB and BB may have a monster, like a set, that will price you out of your draw if you raise.
4) Your draw is too good to fold. Why call with AJs if you're not going to play this flop?

[RapidEvolution]

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG (<font color="#0000cc">$90.65</font>)
UTG+1 (<font color="#0000cc">$51.55</font>)
MP1 (<font color="#0000cc">$9.25</font>)
MP2 (<font color="#0000cc">$45.60</font>)
MP3 (<font color="#0000cc">$47.60</font>)
CO (<font color="#0000cc">$49.95</font>)
Hero (<font color="#0000cc">$85.30</font>)
SB (<font color="#0000cc">$59.85</font>)
BB (<font color="#0000cc">$47.55</font>)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 9 players) Hero is BTN A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#777777">3 folds</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises to $2</font>, <font color="#777777">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $2, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.5

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($8, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 bets $4</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $12</font>, <font color="#777777">SB folds</font>, <font color="#777777">BB folds</font>, MP2 calls $8


I elected to raise to 12 here. I figure if he has overs like AK/AQ, he's likely folding. I'm just about even money against TP hands and overpairs, and in many cases, if villain calls, I can re-evaluate on the turn and likely get a free look at the river. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Babar brings up a very good point here about the blinds if they're slow-playing, so I need to factor this into my decision-making if this spot comes up again. (which I'm sure, it will) [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($32, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">MP2 bets $10</font>, Hero?</font>[/b]

[CalledDownLight]

shove is sexy here

[Split Suit]

4:1 = call against his donk

[RapidLearner]

If you're going to do it, raise more on flop ($16-$20). You're pricing in tons of hands and missing out on a lot of fold equity.

As played to the turn, I'd call. A 25/10/1 villain typically won't understand drawing odds and such, and will think a $10 bet in a .5/1 game is a nice, big, round bet. He seems to like his hand. If it turns out that the $10 is a crappy blocking bet, then make a note on him and move on so you can make a better decision (shove turn) in the future.

Try to draw to a clean heart and put him to a rough decision on the river (like a shove).

[BadBigBabar]

mp is owning us so far