2-7 OOP Turn Semi-snow

blumpkin · #1 07-31-2006, 02:23 PM

Does this play have merit?

Suppose the following scenario had occured in previous hands versus a particular opponent. You have been leading the betting out of position (perhaps you 3-bet his button raise with a good 2 card draw). On the second draw you draw 1 and your opponent draws (either 1 or 2). You improve to a decent hand (say, an 86), you bet, your opponent raises, and you call. You stand pat and he thinks and then draws 1. You decide to value bet the river and your opponent folds.

What you think happened was that your opponent improved to a marginal hand (98, T7, etc.) and raised, hoping either you were still drawing or that you would break a slightly better hand. Once you stayed pat, he concluded that his weak hand was no good and that he would draw 1 and try to improve.

Now here's the snow play. Just as before you bet the turn and your opponent raises. But unlike before you do not have a decent made hand; instead you paired something like 87732. Rather than calling and drawing 1 you call and stand pat. What you are hoping for is that your opponent again deduces that his weak made hand is no good and draws. You then bet the river and hope he misses.

This is quite a parlay indeed. You need to have your opponent decide to draw, and moreover have him miss on the end. It obviously will not work if your opponent never makes these turn raises and then draws after your stand pat, nor will it be successful if your opponent is capable of bluff-raising the river.

The best play is probably just to draw 1 and hope to improve, but I thought this play was interesting enough to throw out there. It does have the advantage that it is cheaper than bluff-3-betting the turn, and also looks like it couldn't be a bluff. Thoughts?

DustinG · #2 07-31-2006, 04:28 PM

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It does have the advantage that it is cheaper than bluff-3-betting the turn, and also looks like it couldn't be a bluff. Thoughts?

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This play seems -ev. Not only does it need to win more often than drawing, but you also need to invest an additional bet on the river if they do break their hand. Whereas, if you draw and hit your hand and bet out, you will probably win an additional bet. Because of this that move seems clearly wrong if the pot is relatively small.

If the pot is larger I'm not sure, but it would probably still be wrong as well. I think its just too much of a parlay that 1) they don't have a real hand, and 2) they dont draw out. As long as they aren't too rough the odds of them making a hand they can call you with should be roughly the same as you have of drawing out, but because you have to factor in the chance they have a real hand.....-ev. Perhaps if it started as a big multiway but you lost a few along the way, then the dead cards may swing it in favor of making this play?? Not something I plan on trying anytime soon I think.

blumpkin · #3 07-31-2006, 04:50 PM

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This play seems -ev.

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Yeah, I think you are right. I guess I'm just trying to find new options when being raised on the turn OOP.

Is it common for you to call a raise on the turn, stand pat with a mediocre hand, and then check/fold if he stays pat?

Xellos · #4 07-31-2006, 05:24 PM

I think the main problem with making this play is that most of the people that raise while drawing 1 against pat hands/1 card draws aren't very good, and that your 1 card draw will be a favorite over theirs anyway. In addition to this, your river play while making this move isn't very believable to me, and I'd expect them to call with a much wider range than usual on the end.

*TT* · #5 07-31-2006, 05:56 PM

I have been known to do this if I know my opponent will only call good hands after the third draw. If he will fold a hand like 87xxx then I can snow on occasion.

Snowing works MUCH better live when you have a solid read.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

DustinG · #6 07-31-2006, 06:31 PM

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Is it common for you to call a raise on the turn, stand pat with a mediocre hand, and then check/fold if he stays pat?

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Most of it is player dependent, but I'm rarely calling with anything worse than a 96 I would think. With anything worse I'm either breaking, 3-betting, or folding. If he is a tight/passive player I'm going to break if I can draw something good, but if I'm somehow sitting there w/ an 9876 the best move may just be to fold. But its rare that you're going to find yourself against someone so weak that you would fold a rough nine there. Against a normal aggressive player the best move is to 3 bet. He may or may not have you beat but if he does you want him breaking. And when two aggressive players collide the turn can get capped with some pretty weak hands in a big game of chicken. I've been doing a great job lately of getting 4 bets in on the turn in these situations with a 9 and having them break. That is fun. What isn't fun is getting 4 bets in with #6, and having them break and beat you, so sometimes you want to slow down with your strong but not spectacular hands imo.

But getting back to the question of calling and then check-folding. Sometimes I would make this play. But you have to be careful with it or some opponents will keep firing with a hand you have beat if you do it too much. And a lot of the aggressive players like to make a lot of very marginal river bets where they aren't sure if they are ahead or not.