probability of possible str8 on flop

[davmcg]

I assume that this is in the archives somewhere but I can't find it. Is this the correct calculation?

AKQ, AKJ etc =58 ways of possible srt8s on flop

58x64 in total - 3712

22100 flops

therefore probability = .167

TIA

edited out error

[AaronBrown]

I think you're asking for the probability that the flop makes a straight possible.

There are six different flop patterns that make straights possible: no gappers (like AKQ, there are 12 of these), two one gap patterns (like AKJ and AQJ, 22 of these), a two gapper (like AQT, 10 of these) and two double gappers (like AKT and AJT, 20 of these). That's 64 total, not 58. I think you missed the straight possibilities with the Ace at the bottom, there are 6 of those (32A, 43A, 42A, 53A, 54A and 52A).

Each of these can come up 64 ways, as you say, so 64 x 64 = 4,096. Divide by 22,100 and get 0.185.

[davmcg]

Thanks - miscalc due to a careless error (as usual....), for some reason I missed out the jack high str8s.