Performify's Pigskin Picks - Week Seventeen

[Performify]

Last week was another third consecutive dismal one, resulting in three consecutive significantly losing weeks in 14 and 15 and 16, erasing a +13.45 unit profit that I'd shown through week 13.

Due to the unique scenarios in the NFL this week, I'm not picking a lot of straight games this week.

However I believe there is a lot of value in a few games and in a few teased scenarios.

Results from the week and season:
For the Week: 0-3-1, loss on Game of the Week. -10.7 units on recommended plays.
Season: 9-7 (56.25%) on Game of the Week. 32-35 (47.76%) on overall picks. -15.05 units on recommended plays for the season.
Game of the week remains a winner (+6.5 units for the season on recommended Game of the Week plays) despite the downturn in the past three weeks for the rest.

Kansas City -7 (-108) over Bengals
I posted this pick earlier, and hopefully you were already able to secure it at the line mentioned. KC has a lot to play for, and the Bengals have motivation to lose - if they win, they’ll play the red-hot Pittsburg Steelers in the first round of the playoffs, but if Cinci loses and the Patriots win the Bengals face the Jags first round. Cinci obviously has a strong desire to sit their starters for rest. Carson Palmer is not going to play. On the Chiefs side, KC needs to win to have any playoff shot (KC win, San Diego and Pittsburg loses and KC is in), and also will have strong desire to give a win for the home fans to try to put a strong finish on the disappointing season (assuming the Chiefs don't get in). Coach Dick Vermeil is probably on his way out . The Bengals are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings with the Chiefs, and the Chiefs still boast their impressive winning streak in December / Janurary at home. Game of the week, and the only game I'm playing straight up. I'm on this game for fifteen units at -7 (-108) and it is currently my only play for the week.

Teasers:
The following teasers have a lot of value in my opinion. Both Pittsburgh and Tampa are playing must-win games, however I believe the spreads (currently -13.5 on Pinnacle for both) are too large to be of value. I believe these games have value in teasing down past the seven. KC -.5, Pittsburgh -6.5: risking 6.5 units to win 5 units
KC -.5, Tampa -6.5: risking 6.5 units to win 5 units

I am looking at a couple other games, and might be back with another couple picks a little later in the afternoon.

[sygamel]

A 2 team, 7 point tease at -130 is just breakeven if you think Pitt and TB have 60% chances of covering their respective games at -13.5 and so are probably better bets that way. Not criticizing, just consulting based on my tease computations. I don't think either team pulls out starters until they're up at least 3 scores and even then Pittsburgh may have little to play for after the KC-SD game tomorrow.

[Performify]

Adding another teaser:

Denver +17, Oakland +14.5
to win five units

Sy, thanks for the feedback. I'd like to discuss that with you further someday, because that's certainly not how I look at teasers and I probably do need to understand how you're getting to that conclusion.

I'm doing simple analysis predicting the score of the game based on a series of forumulas that include statistics (past and predicted), modifiers for weather, modifiers for "must-win" and modifiers for trends. then i compare that to the listed spread to find my +EV games each week. I'll then re-run the numbers changing each spread by +/- 6 and 7, and then taking the "# of units to play" that my system spits out and then seeing which of those games cross key numbers (I add +1 for moving across 3 and 10, +2 for moving across 7 and 14) and evaluate which games my system feels are strongly valuable in that range.

For example my system predicts the Raiders are going to lose by 7 this weekend. With the spread at 8.5 there's not a lot of value there as a single pick under my usual cofidence analysis, but when i can move across winning on the 10 and 14 that becomes a valuable tease in my system. I'm not necessarily looking at the direct value of betting on the Raiders straight up as a comparison.

I guess a better example would be Pittsburgh. My system predicts a 7 point win there with a very high degree of confidence (when I input the line at Pitt -6.5, it comes out as a five unit play under my system, i.e. a game of the week) ergo it gets included as teaser material. My system doesn't like the game at all at -13.5 because its predicting Pitt to win by 7. When I take the five units and add +3 for crossing the 7 and 10 and it becomes identified as a strong play to use in a teaser in my system.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll then re-run the numbers changing each spread by +/- 6 and 7, and then taking the "# of units to play" that my system spits out and then seeing which of those games cross key numbers (I add +1 for moving across 3 and 10, +2 for moving across 7 and 14)

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not sure what you mean by the first part of this sentence. The 2nd part is wildly inaccurate though. The 7, 10, and 14 are nowhere near as valuable as the 3. The 3 is almost twice as valuable as the 7, and no other number approaches the 7. 10 and 14 are relatively minor key numbers and usually aren't parts of good teasers. Basic strategy teasers cross the 3 and the 7. There may be a few teasers here and there that aren't BS teasers but are profitable, but they are rare and due to special circumstances and probably a bad line to start. As sygamel said, the original play going from -13.5 to -6.5 would have to cover around 60% at -13.5 to make it worthwhile at -130. His numbers are more conservative than mine. I have it at 62.7%.

[sygamel]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'll then re-run the numbers changing each spread by +/- 6 and 7, and then taking the "# of units to play" that my system spits out and then seeing which of those games cross key numbers (I add +1 for moving across 3 and 10, +2 for moving across 7 and 14)

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not sure what you mean by the first part of this sentence. The 2nd part is wildly inaccurate though. The 7, 10, and 14 are nowhere near as valuable as the 3. The 3 is almost twice as valuable as the 7, and no other number approaches the 7. 10 and 14 are relatively minor key numbers and usually aren't parts of good teasers. Basic strategy teasers cross the 3 and the 7. There may be a few teasers here and there that aren't BS teasers but are profitable, but they are rare and due to special circumstances and probably a bad line to start. As sygamel said, the original play going from -13.5 to -6.5 would have to cover around 60% at -13.5 to make it worthwhile at -130. His numbers are more conservative than mine. I have it at 62.7%.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes it was a little conservative.

Basically jedi I would only play a teaser like this if I was already playing the games straight up at -13.5 and wanted to diversify my risk. Pitt and TB would already have to be very highly rated games at -13.5 to justify the -130 tease 7 pt price (requiring a higher than 75% chance of covering each side just to break even).

Sublime and I had a very long debate a ways back about the value of teasing *any* game that doesn't go through the 3-7 track, with Sublime believing straight up is the only way to go otherwise because the price paid to pick up 6 will not be recovered. I still like to do it in certain spots only to defray risk (for ex. teasing home dogs of 8+ to above 2 TDs but only then I'd be making a very strong straight up play on the home dog)

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'll then re-run the numbers changing each spread by +/- 6 and 7, and then taking the "# of units to play" that my system spits out and then seeing which of those games cross key numbers (I add +1 for moving across 3 and 10, +2 for moving across 7 and 14)

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not sure what you mean by the first part of this sentence. The 2nd part is wildly inaccurate though. The 7, 10, and 14 are nowhere near as valuable as the 3. The 3 is almost twice as valuable as the 7, and no other number approaches the 7. 10 and 14 are relatively minor key numbers and usually aren't parts of good teasers. Basic strategy teasers cross the 3 and the 7. There may be a few teasers here and there that aren't BS teasers but are profitable, but they are rare and due to special circumstances and probably a bad line to start. As sygamel said, the original play going from -13.5 to -6.5 would have to cover around 60% at -13.5 to make it worthwhile at -130. His numbers are more conservative than mine. I have it at 62.7%.

[/ QUOTE ]

yes it was a little conservative.

Basically jedi I would only play a teaser like this if I was already playing the games straight up at -13.5 and wanted to diversify my risk. Pitt and TB would already have to be very highly rated games at -13.5 to justify the -130 tease 7 pt price (requiring a higher than 75% chance of covering each side just to break even).

Sublime and I had a very long debate a ways back about the value of teasing *any* game that doesn't go through the 3-7 track, with Sublime believing straight up is the only way to go otherwise because the price paid to pick up 6 will not be recovered. I still like to do it in certain spots only to defray risk (for ex. teasing home dogs of 8+ to above 2 TDs but only then I'd be making a very strong straight up play on the home dog)

[/ QUOTE ]

That seems a little contradictory. You want to diversify your risk, yet you want to make a very strong straight up play AND include the dog in a teaser. That seems like you are putting too much into one game. On the other hand, if you want to take a unit off the big SU play and put it into a teaser, then I can see how that might be justified. As long as the point value added is not THAT far from enough to cover the extra juice.

Also, I don't think it'd be good to have two of these in the same teaser. But I'm not really sure.

[sygamel]

[ QUOTE ]
That seems a little contradictory. You want to diversify your risk, yet you want to make a very strong straight up play AND include the dog in a teaser. That seems like you are putting too much into one game.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you've graded a play at x units, why is it putting too much into one game to play it at x units in whatever manner you see fit?

[DougOzzzz]

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[ QUOTE ]
That seems a little contradictory. You want to diversify your risk, yet you want to make a very strong straight up play AND include the dog in a teaser. That seems like you are putting too much into one game.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you've graded a play at x units, why is it putting too much into one game to play it at x units in whatever manner you see fit?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, if you grade a play at 5 units, and put 4 on the spread and 1 in a teaser, then that is fine.

My problem is if you grade a play at 5 units, put 5 on the spread and then 1 on a teaser.

[sygamel]

I agree.

[PropPlayer]

I can't decide at all on this weeks picks. Good luck with your tease. I am making a lottery type play 100 to win $450.00 on a 6pt tease with 4 NFL games and USC as a 5th team.

Colts -1.5
Chiefs -3
Patriots +1
Redskins -1.5
USC -1.5

I have a $32 with $978.00 3 Team Under dog parlay open with the last game left Texas, So threw USC into this tease so if it comes through it evens off my hedge where the only way I can loose if USC win by 1pt.
Good Luck to both of us.