LSU - 440 contracts bot on T/S

NajdorfDefense · #1 03-27-2006, 01:04 AM

avg price 1.2, now worth 27.5 or so, close at 100 if they win the title. A nice chunk of change for a flyer taken back in January and then added to [as low as 0.9 last month!]

Can hedge by
1)buying UCLA M/L next round at +124,
or 2) go for UCLA +2 and perfect middle,
or 3) sell some LSU and lock in profits.

Aside from shouting 'Don't Hedge,' what do you think I should do with this valuable position?

Naj [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

WFDeac · #2 03-27-2006, 08:28 AM

Given the format of trade sports, coupled with Mason vs. Florida being the early game, makes hedging tricky and gives you a lot of options.

You could consider waiting until after Florida game to see what the situation is. A Mason win could enable LSU to go up to maybe 70 with a win.....but a Florida win would only allow LSU to go up to maybe 45 with a win (given the SEC tournament meeting). So that might help you with hedging if you think you have an edge there and others will be slower to react to LSU.

But with that being said, a Florida win would drop the worth from 27.5 (mason win probably raising it to upper 30s)

You could crunch the numbers and makes estimates of different scenarios....options are almost endless.

MacGuyV · #3 03-27-2006, 01:03 PM

I have no idea what you guys are talking about. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

So who is the favorite in Vegas right now to take it all? I would presume Florida, followed closely by LSU?

LegallyBlind · #4 03-27-2006, 01:36 PM

Naj, I'm in nearly the same boat as you. I bought Florida at 7.1 and LSU at 7.2 (both on TS), with slightly more invested in florida. Now i'm going nuts tyring to figure out all the different scenarios, suggestions more than welcome.

NajdorfDefense · #5 03-27-2006, 05:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea what you guys are talking about. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

So who is the favorite in Vegas right now to take it all? I would presume Florida, followed closely by LSU?

[/ QUOTE ]

Fla 37.5
LSU 27.5
UCLA 22.5
GMU 12.5 last I saw on tradesport

Naj

NajdorfDefense · #6 03-27-2006, 05:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Given the format of trade sports, coupled with Mason vs. Florida being the early game, makes hedging tricky and gives you a lot of options.

You could consider waiting until after Florida game to see what the situation is. A Mason win could enable LSU to go up to maybe 70 with a win.....but a Florida win would only allow LSU to go up to maybe 45 with a win (given the SEC tournament meeting).

[/ QUOTE ]

Waiting for the GMU game to finish is great advice. I'll wait on most of whatever hedge to do that.

LSU will be favored by 1-2 if they win [like they are now over a 2 seed]. They will have beaten Duke, Texas, UCLA in a row, much harder than GTown, Nova, GMU. All else equal, of course. Or just a pick'em.

Naj

im2sexy4mychips · #7 03-27-2006, 07:06 PM

Can you sell LSU and just bank the savings? Because LSU is going to lose to UCLA. And I doubt GMU pulls the upset again (but how many times has that been said), so I think you should just take your winning rather than trying to parlay/hedge or whatever your other options are. I'm not too familiar on this whole sports team stock deal.

NajdorfDefense · #8 03-31-2006, 11:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Can you sell LSU and just bank the savings? Because LSU is going to lose to UCLA. And I doubt GMU pulls the upset again (but how many times has that been said), so I think you should just take your winning rather than trying to parlay/hedge or whatever your other options are. I'm not too familiar on this whole sports team stock deal.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your 'advice' is horrible. If you don't know what you are talking about, pls let others respond.

UCLA is now +125 and spread +2.5. LSU is up to 29.5 in the futures.

Naj

LegallyBlind · #9 03-31-2006, 03:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
LSU will be favored by 1-2 if they win [like they are now over a 2 seed]. They will have beaten Duke, Texas, UCLA in a row, much harder than GTown, Nova, GMU. All else equal, of course. Or just a pick'em.

[/ QUOTE ]

Naj, you really think LSU will be favored over Florida if they were to meet in the final? I see Florida being a slight favorite because of previous meetings.

Like I said before, I have both LSU and Florida stock (bought at 7.2 and 7.1) and I think I'm just going to ride them both out. Only having LSU, I would be tempted to sell some of that stock prior to the Florida/GM game, specially if Mason wins. Personally, if I bought from the beginning and and made it this far, I would want to secure some return.

Another option would be to sell during the LSU/UCLA game. I think that during the game, stocks tend to become overvalued and selling some of the stock if LSU jumps out to an early lead, or are ahead at halftime, might not be a bad idea.