NL100: Nut FD vs midstack shove

[ranka]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Reads:
Villain is Button and totally unknown. Also he is midstack.

Stacks:
UTG ($140.35)
UTG+1 ($135.50)
MP1 ($96.50)
MP2 ($52.20)
MP3 ($98.50)
CO ($28.90)
Button ($49.05)
SB ($59.25)
Hero ($115.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, Button calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $5</font>, Button calls $4.

Flop: ($10.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $44.05</font>, Hero ?

[AlexB182]

I think you have to fold. You have no FE as he already shoved over your bet plus your drawing to nine outs only, maybe he even has a redraw to a boat. In the best case he has like TP only what would give you 3 more outs but I wouldn't count on it. That means your odds are simply to bad to call and draw to your FD here, it would be an -EV play in the long run...Just my 2 cents of course.

[Mike Kelley]

I think this is a call given what's in the middle already.

This is as near as I can put a random on a limp calling range.

Board: Jc 2c 3d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.572% 45.52% 00.05% 36504 40.00 { Ac9c }
Hand 1: 54.428% 54.38% 00.05% 43606 40.00 { 88-22, AJs, KJs, QJs, JTs, AJo, KJo, QJo, JTo }

[AlexB182]

Do you really thing pairs 44 - 66 belong in this range? If yes, why not 99, TT? They are not always raised PF by villain. OP has to call 37$ to win 98, less than 3 - 1. So with exacly your range this might be a call but I think it's really close...

[eMedia]

If you feel like gambling call.

[GT30]

If you could solidly put him on AJ or better you still have 9 outs and your call is only slightly -EV.

Add in the fact that I've seen plenty of midstack unknown donks shove at this level with worse flush draws or straight draws so you might even be a fav like 20% of the time here.

I aggree with eMedia...this one is a coinflip

[AllTheCheese]

I call.

[The Rat Pack]

If you had any history with your opponent and knew that he likes to push flush draws/straight draws I think you could call. But since you have no history at all I would fold and find a better spot.

[bottomset]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really thing pairs 44 - 66 belong in this range? If yes, why not 99, TT? They are not always raised PF by villain. OP has to call 37$ to win 98, less than 3 - 1. So with exacly your range this might be a call but I think it's really close...

[/ QUOTE ]

even if you leave it to just the Jx hands and 22/33 it doesn't change the equity very much, and still a call

[SABR42]

I snap-call this every time.