Puzzling over this one

[Purple Eyes]

I play quite a bit of $1/2 plo8 on Stars. I have been puzzling over the following type of situation. Let's say I'm in early position and get a mediocre hand such as 99/QQ. I call, it folds to the blinds and they are both in. The flop is 9 2 4 with two hearts. The SB and BB check to me. We each have at least $200 in front of us. I have no flush draw.

Question - is betting the pot a bad play? I'm starting to think it is. The 2 low suited cards is probably interesting to either SB or BB. What frequently happens here is you get at least one call, then if the board comes low again or with another heart, you figure to be behind and in the hated "chasing for a half" position because that low turn card could easily have given somebody a straight, or a flush if the heart came. Just a whole lot of turn cards that put your opponent in a freeroll position. Is it better to just check the flop? (Yes, I realize my first mistake might have been playing this bad hand to begin with).

Any input is appreciated - thanks.

[Olrik]

i dont play plo9 but this seems to be a starting hand problem...

[brian64]

I have a similar aversion to his kind of situation, and because of it I have started to fold more of my QQ and KK hands preflop. I would really love to hear what the veterans do in the situation you describe.

In an unraised pot, the blinds will have more or less random hands. Common sense says that with the top set, you probably have a lot of equity so you have to bet the pot. Someone with just a low draw or just a flush draw doesn't have the pot odds to call, so they should fold. You gain when someone like that makes a mistake and calls.

Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
433,012 trials (Randomized)
board: 9s2h4h
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
9c9dQsQh 48.46% 112,737 306,967 0 0 0
* * * *<font color="white">__</font> 25.77% 44,454 61,491 2,485 143,369 11,876
* * * *<font color="white">__</font> 25.77% 44,639 62,069 2,485 142,939 11,876


The reason I hate these kind of hands is that if someone calls with a low draw, they can semi-bluff you when a heart hits, or they can freeroll you when a low card hits (with either a made straight, a straight draw, or a flush draw).

Another concern is that even a junk hand like 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is a favorite over yours on the flop.

One silver lining is that your opponents don't know what you are betting with, or at least they won't if you sometimes bet on the flop with just low draws or flush draws. Someone with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] doesn't know that they should re-raise you and will probably fold instead. Unless they had a nut draw, they can't be sure their hand is good even when a low card or heart comes on the turn, so it is hard for them to get aggressive.

When a scare card comes on the turn, it always seems that I should stay aggressive, but instead I usually check-fold. And if you always check-fold in this situation, it seems to me that you have to muck hands like 99QQ preflop, especially if you will be out of position post-flop.

[prodonkey]

378K might be a fav in a hot/cold situation.. but it's a hand he's never really gonna know where he is at even if he hits.

I bet my top set there.. build a pot in case you fill up and can scoop someone.. maybe someone has middle set, albeit this isn't really a board I want to get all my chips in with top set, but if you don't bet the flop, you can't bet more on the turn to punish the draws when they are at a big disadvantage.

[Purple Eyes]

thanks for the input from both of you. Assume a different scenario, but I have same hand. There are 4 callers pre-flop and then the button, who is LAG, raises to $10. Three people call, so the pot has around $50 in it. After the flop, there are 2 checks to me. I know that the button will bet big if it checks to him. What is your line?? .....check, bet the pot, check raise the button (big pot at that point) or be looking to fold? Thanks.

[Danastasio1]

[ QUOTE ]
thanks for the input from both of you. Assume a different scenario, but I have same hand. There are 4 callers pre-flop and then the button, who is LAG, raises to $10. Three people call, so the pot has around $50 in it. After the flop, there are 2 checks to me. I know that the button will bet big if it checks to him. What is your line?? .....check, bet the pot, check raise the button (big pot at that point) or be looking to fold? Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm actually thinking something more along the lines of smaller bet, 1/3 the pot whereas you're probably going to get HU and see a cheap turn instead of check/calling LAGs pot-sized flop bet. However, if you believe LAG reraises any flop bet you make here most of the time, check and then see what price his flop bet gives you. Due to the requisite implied odds considerations for any hand with a LAG in PLO8, this is my standard thought process here. Is this flawed? I'd just add, I dislike this game more and more with each passing day. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]