I flop OESD against an unknown.....

[HoldEmNewby]

Call or push??? I'd usually push with an OESD and an overcard but this board is a lil ugly.

Party Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $52.76
UTG: $78.05
CO: $55.54
BTN: $103.09
Hero (SB): $48.40

Pre-Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
UTG folds, CO calls $0.50, BTN folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.50</font>, BB calls $2, CO folds

Flop: ($5.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $5.25</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $10.50</font>, Hero?????

[well named]

Calling puts you in an awkward spot on a blank turn, where you are out of position and any further betting commits you since you have only 35 left and the pot is 26. So I think this is shove or fold for that reason.

Without a very good read I think this is actually a pretty easy fold. That flop hits his range so hard and I don't expect to have very good fold equity against a flop min-raiser on this board. You are way behind A-high flush draws, pair+flush draws, sets, straights, and even overpairs , although that is less likely.

[Ranma4703]

[ QUOTE ]
Calling puts you in an awkward spot on a blank turn, where you are out of position and any further betting commits you since you have only 35 left and the pot is 26. So I think this is shove or fold for that reason.

Without a very good read I think this is actually a pretty easy fold. That flop hits his range so hard and I don't expect to have very good fold equity against a flop min-raiser on this board. You are way behind A-high flush draws, pair+flush draws, sets, straights, and even overpairs , although that is less likely.

[/ QUOTE ]
You are getting odds to just call an than check/fold if you miss (an ace is a miss I think). Just because you would be pot committed if you had a hand doesn't mean you have to fold getting really, really good odds.

[well named]

[ QUOTE ]
You are getting odds to just call an than check/fold if you miss (an ace is a miss I think). Just because you would be pot committed if you had a hand doesn't mean you have to fold getting really, really good odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree, I think you have to discount diamond outs fairly heavily here, leaving only 6 clean outs to the straight. You are getting 4:1 to see the turn but are really only about 7:1 to get there.

With implied odds you are basically neutral EV, and that assumes you get it all in every time you hit, which is probably not too unreasonable, but that also ignores times you hit the turn, but he draws out on the river. It is also possible you are drawing to a split already. Given all that, I don't consider this to be really great odds.

[Spurious]

[ QUOTE ]
You are getting odds to just call an than check/fold if you miss (an ace is a miss I think). Just because you would be pot committed if you had a hand doesn't mean you have to fold getting really, really good odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

You cant put him on a flush draw and a made hand at the same time :/

Either our draw is life or we are 50/50 vs. a FD.
(I might be wrong, but i think pair+FD is unlikely.)

I actually put him on KQ or QJ.

Folding here is not terrible, since we could be splitting from time to time, which makes our hand -EV.

I disagree, I think you have to discount diamond outs fairly heavily here, leaving only 6 clean outs to the straight. You are getting 4:1 to see the turn but are really only about 7:1 to get there.

With implied odds you are basically neutral EV, and that assumes you get it all in every time you hit, which is probably not too unreasonable, but that also ignores times you hit the turn, but he draws out on the river. It is also possible you are drawing to a split already. Given all that, I don't consider this to be really great odds.

[well named]

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You cant put him on a flush draw and a made hand at the same time :/

[/ QUOTE ]

No, but if the Kd hits, are you really going to have the best hand if all the money goes in? (Well, maybe if he's bad.)

Playing around in pokerstove I guess it is a little closer than I was thinking originally, but still marginal enough that it's -EV to call in my opinion.

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(I might be wrong, but i think pair+FD is unlikely.)

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It's pretty much just AdJd, so unlikely, but part of his range.

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I actually put him on KQ or QJ

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is way too narrow. JJ, 99, 8T, KT, and flush and straight draws certainly are in his range, along with two pair hands.

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Folding here is not terrible, since we could be splitting from time to time, which makes our hand -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if it's more or less neutral EV, being out of position and with there being so many scare cards, it seems to me this is a hard spot to play optimally. If you call there are really only 6 cards that make you confident you have the best hand, and even then it's at least somewhat harder to extract out of position.

[HoldEmNewby]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You are getting odds to just call an than check/fold if you miss (an ace is a miss I think). Just because you would be pot committed if you had a hand doesn't mean you have to fold getting really, really good odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

You cant put him on a flush draw and a made hand at the same time :/

Either our draw is life or we are 50/50 vs. a FD.
(I might be wrong, but i think pair+FD is unlikely.)

I actually put him on KQ or QJ.

Folding here is not terrible, since we could be splitting from time to time, which makes our hand -EV.

I disagree, I think you have to discount diamond outs fairly heavily here, leaving only 6 clean outs to the straight. You are getting 4:1 to see the turn but are really only about 7:1 to get there.

With implied odds you are basically neutral EV, and that assumes you get it all in every time you hit, which is probably not too unreasonable, but that also ignores times you hit the turn, but he draws out on the river. It is also possible you are drawing to a split already. Given all that, I don't consider this to be really great odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree calling doesn't look +EV. How do you feel about a push?

[HoldEmNewby]

meh I think i have to agree with the advice here, it looks like a fold without a read.

[Profish2285]

The reason its a fold despite the odds is how awkward its going to be to get the money in if you hit your money card. If a king falls he is not paying you off unless he has a ten, so youre calling for whats in the pot now more or less. If the guys an idiot then I guess you can stack him, but if you hit your straight it is so obvious that any semi normal villain will check behind the turn or just fold the turn if you lead.