Dems big favorites

[Mad Cow]

I think that the Democrats are big favorites in the upcoming presidential elections. Here is why:


First, the claim that Republicans would “restore dignity in the White House” and manage the country efficiently turned out to be a disappointment:


1. They are no better than others when it comes to protect American institutions and the constitution (Libby, Gonzalez, Halliburton, torture, invasion of privacy, and so many others).

2. They are no better managers than others (Katrina, war in Iraq, growing deficit, and so on).


Secondly, there are profound trends that favor Democrats ideology:


1. International institutions, multilateral agreements and restrained foreign policy are not as ridiculed as they were 5 years ago.

2. People are afraid to have their jobs shipped overseas, and they worry for the future of their kids. It favors themes like education and government assistance to emerging industries (e.g. alternative energies).

3. Healthcare has the top spot among domestic issues. There is a sweet spot for a measured real reform, and the Republicans have no credibility in this domain.


Now, Democrats were already in a great position 7 years ago, and they still did not manage to win. Also, we only need one or two terrorist attacks to turn the tables. And it does not take into account the personality of the candidates. Therefore, this is far from a locked win, but at this point in time, I would still give them a 2 – 1 edge. What am I missing?

[UATrewqaz]

Hillary FTL

[AlexM]

And the fact that Hillary is likely to win the nomination completely cancels all this out.

[Grey]

Not so much.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo.../national.html

[Mad Cow]

Most voters have not started their education yet. For the time being, it is more of a name recognition / superficial sympathy contest. My point is that the general climate should favor the Democrats massively.

Early polls reflect the heart. When in the voting booth, people think with the wallet, and even sometimes with their brains [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[JOHNY CA$H]

I'm thinking 60/40 at this point, but I agree with most of your reasoning.

[JOHNY CA$H]

[ QUOTE ]
And the fact that Hillary is likely to win the nomination completely cancels all this out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the anti-Hilary movement isn't as big an issue as some make it out to be. The people that hate her aren't likely to vote Democrat anyway.

[Grey]

[ QUOTE ]
When in the voting booth, people think with the wallet

[/ QUOTE ]No, they do not and all research on the topic proves it.

[Mad Cow]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
When in the voting booth, people think with the wallet

[/ QUOTE ]No, they do not and all research on the topic proves it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you give us a reference?

[Metric]

She may be popular in southern CA, NY, etc. -- population centers who will go Democrat anyway and who are highly represented in nationwide polling, but in battleground states, the south, etc. I seriously doubt that it's an advantage to be such a polarizing, liberal figure, and a woman at that.