#1
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writing an article, want to double check math
We will examine a few situations and applicable concepts
No Limit Holdem Ring game Blinds: $5/$10 6 players Stack sizes: UTG: $2003.90 UTG+1: $745.50 CO: $932.00 Hero: $1000.00 SB: $1203.50 BB: $1000.00 Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 folds, Hero raises to $40, SB folds, BB raises to 120$, Hero calls. Flop: ($245, 2 players) BB bets 190$, Hero? Is this a good spot to play back at your opponent? To determine this we need to look at (x) our hand QsJs (y) the range our opponent 3 bets with preflop (z) our opponents range for calling once we raise. So now that we know the individual elements let’s take a look at how often our opponent has a strong holding If your opponent is on the tighter side he will be 3-betting a range similar to this 88+,AJs+,AQo+ On a flop of Ts2h4c he will have an overpair, set, or marginal pair 50% of the time. Once you subtract marginal pairs (99,88) from that range, the picture becomes even more clear On a flop of Ts2h4c he will have an overpair or set 34% of the time. if you have any questions about how I came up with this equation I would be happy to answer, thanks for the help! |
#2
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Re: writing an article, want to double check math
By my reckoning there are 70 pairs of hole cards he could be holding and 33 of those give him a set, an overpair or a marginal pair. So that's roughly 50%.
12 of those 33 are pocket 8's and pocket 9's, leaving 21 out of 70 ways giving him a set or an overpair. Which is 30%. So yeah, I see where you're getting those figures. I doubt that helps you much, but it felt good to check it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
#3
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Re: writing an article, want to double check math
I plugged those settings into the simulation and here is what I got :
Overpair or set : 34.4% Any pair : 54.1% If our plan is to raise to say 450$ and fold to allin the EV of the play is : a)if he push overpairs/set folds low pairs : +130$ for us (where 0$ is EV of folding to cbet) b)if he push any pair : -43$ for us c)if he push overpairs/set and AK (better strategy than pushing low pairs as AK has better equity vs our potential allin range than say 99) : -101$ for us. d)if we just push and he calls with overpairs and sets our EV is +22$. Marginally better than folding. Conclusion : Playing back is good if he is straightforward and only plays overpairs and sets against our raise. I wrote similair article here I think you may be interested in it. |
#4
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Re: writing an article, want to double check math
Thanks for your replies guys. I am dumb tho and forgot the flop. Do my numbers still hold true?
No Limit Holdem Ring game Blinds: $5/$10 6 players Stack sizes: UTG: $2003.90 UTG+1: $745.50 CO: $932.00 Hero: $1000.00 SB: $1203.50 BB: $1000.00 Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 folds, Hero raises to $40, SB folds, BB raises to 120$, Hero calls. Flop: ($245, 2 players)T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] BB bets 190$, Hero? |
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