2/4 87s, flops gutshot

[Vermin]

No read on SB, button is passive.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. MP3 posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP3 (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero calls, MP3 folds, Button calls.

Flop: (7 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls

Is this call ok? I´m only getting 8:1, but I´ve got three outs to the nuts (might be sensitive to re-draws though), one to a probable winner, it´s not unlikely that the pre-raiser is betting overcards so I might win with an 8 or 7. I´ve also got the backdoor flush draw. Since the button is passive I´m not to worried about a raise from him on this board.

[psuasskicker]

If I wanna take a card off here, I'm raising to try to buy the river for free.

Doing this also tends to get my stronger hands three bet later in the session, so I don't mind this either. That said, I'm folding most of the time in this situation.

- C -

[Chris Daddy Cool]

with a passive player behind me i am likely peeling here, sometimes raising. i don't think you can fold.

[Ron Burgundy]

[ QUOTE ]
That said, I'm folding most of the time in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't fold here, the price is right.

[Vermin]

The problem with raising is that you give the bettor a chance to 3-bet and bet into you on the turn, costing you an additional BB.

[James.]

with no threat of a raise behind me this is an easy peel.

[busted]

[ QUOTE ]
If I wanna take a card off here, I'm raising to try to buy the river for free.

Doing this also tends to get my stronger hands three bet later in the session, so I don't mind this either. That said, I'm folding most of the time in this situation.

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]
I mainly agree with this reasoning. If you raise, it's likely the SB will check to you on the turn. If you check, the passive button will probably also check and you get to see the river for free. Your hand is basically a weak draw with the gutshot, backdoor flush draw, and no overcards.

How many outs do you have? I count 4 possible outs for the gutshot, but one of these (6d) is probably voided because of the flush draw. Also 1.5 discounted outs for the backdoor flush draw. So a total of 4.5 outs, so hero is a 9.4:1 underdog at this point (42.5:4.5).

Also, the 2-suited board is a concern -- hero is very vulnerable to a range of hands (TP, flush draw, lots of possible overpairs out there with the 9-high flop, and lots of overcards for opponents).

Without position, I'd probably fold the flop, mainly cause I thinks it's an EV- situation with 2 opponents betting).

Another consideration is pot size. From my perspective, this is a borderline "large pot in the making." My threshold is 8 SB PF, with 10 SB indicating a good chance that this is a VERY BIG pot in the making. If the pot size was 8 SB or more, I'd tend more to play this hand.

If I decide to play this hand, I always play it aggressively. Thus raising the flop and calling a possible 3-bet. As noted above, this may lead to a relatively cheap free card, where you can see if you've hit your draws (and muck the hand if not). This will also likely cause the button to fold and get you HU against SB, where you've got position and it would only cost you 1 BB to get to SD (and possibly for free if he checks to you on the river).

P.S. This reminds me of the type of hand that I like to play when I first sit down at a table. I'll intentionally play like a maniac -- jamming the pot and betting and raising at every opportunity -- all the way to SD. Any observant players who see my hole cards will categorize me as a maniac. I like to encourage this impression for obvious reasons.

Later on, when I tighten up considerably, they'll probably think I'm just checking my email or getting a beer.

[psuasskicker]

You can't fold here, the price is right.

First of all, no it's not. Second, there's a player to act behind you who, while passive, could fold (which would suck if you called cause you want his extra money which makes the call more marginal rather than just bad), and could raise which turns your call into a disaster.

with no threat of a raise behind me this is an easy peel.

Why is it that any time someone says an opponent is passive, there's an automatic assumption that they will NEVER bet their hand? I have yet to see an opponent who will never bet/raise. As such, you have to assign a probability to how often they will raise or fold their hand.

You're getting 8 to 1 to call. Let's say the passive guy folds 33% of the time, raises 10% of the time, and calls the rest. You get 9 to 1 57% of the time, 8 to 1 33%, and 6 to 1 or worse the other 10%. That nets out to 8.37 to 1 on calling here, and you're about 10.7 to 1 against hitting your gut-shot on the turn.

If you wanna play this pot, I'd play it to win it. Your 8 or 7 may be outs against the PFR who could easily be on overcards, but the passive player behind you may make them some or all no good (depending on his hand). Raise to push him out, buy the button, and get a free river if you want to play; or with the intention of trying to bet the PFR off his hand on the turn (which I'll do a lot if I raise here and the button folds).

Otherwise I just let this one go cause the price on the flop isn't attractive enough for me to think it's worth it.

- C -

[Vermin]

[ QUOTE ]
[i]You're getting 8 to 1 to call. Let's say the passive guy folds 33% of the time, raises 10% of the time, and calls the rest. You get 9 to 1 57% of the time, 8 to 1 33%, and 6 to 1 or worse the other 10%. That nets out to 8.37 to 1 on calling here, and you're about 10.7 to 1 against hitting your gut-shot on the turn.

If you wanna play this pot, I'd play it to win it. Your 8 or 7 may be outs against the PFR who could easily be on overcards, but the passive player behind you may make them some or all no good (depending on his hand). Raise to push him out, buy the button, and get a free river if you want to play; or with the intention of trying to bet the PFR off his hand on the turn (which I'll do a lot if I raise here and the button folds).

Otherwise I just let this one go cause the price on the flop isn't attractive enough for me to think it's worth it.

- C -

[/ QUOTE ]

As I said above, the problem with raising is that the button will (probably) 3-bet if he has an over-pair and then bet the turn, costing you an additional BB to look at the turn. If I don´t improve on the turn I intend to fold to a bet (obviously). With implied odds I think just calling and, likely, getting a cheap look at the turn is the way to go. Since I don´t have a read on the guy it´s not unlikely that he is a typical loose passive player and will check the turn if he´s got just overcards (i.e. giving me a free look at the river without the raise on the flop).

[W. Deranged]

Peel!