bad fold?

[joop]

10/20 online 5 handed

Villian is very solid TAG, winning player, who I have played with a fair bit and never seen get out of line, make moves, spew, etc. We have no real history against eachother, so there's no ego involved here - just value poker.

SB is 47/12/0.7 donkey who I haven't seen before and have no other read than stats.

Villian opens OTB, SB calls, and I call with Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Flop comes 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Checked to villian who bets, SB calls, I CR, villian 3bets, SB folds, I call.

Turn comes A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and I bet 3bet.

River comes 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and I bet and fold to a raise getting 12.5-1

How bad is it?

[inferno]

dont folddddddddd

[joop]

Any reasoning, or just 'dont'?

[dangerfish]

[ QUOTE ]
Any reasoning, or just 'dont'?

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason is you are probably good here 1-12 times and if he is a regular in the game you really don't want to be advertising that you are capable of huge laydowns.

[HOWMANY]

I got raised on the river in a spot pretty similar to this my last session by a TAG where I had KhQx on a 4 heart board and was shown A9 no heart.

[joop]

Could you post the hand in this thread?

Would like to see how similar they are... there are a lot of factors to weigh up here.

[Gildwulf]

V bad fold. Just because you've never seen him get out of line doesn't mean he can't show up with a Jack [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or a ten [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or total bollocks 7% of the time here. 12.5-1 you have to call.

[joop]

[ QUOTE ]
or total bollocks >8% of the time here. 12.5-1 you have to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough.

[Hoi Polloi]

[ QUOTE ]
V bad fold. Just because you've never seen him get out of line doesn't mean he can't show up with a Jack [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or a ten [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or total bollocks 7% of the time here. 12.5-1 you have to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good spot for a bluff. You have to call w/2nd nuts.

[Will.]

When I first saw this hand, my natural instinct was that it was a good fold. I just can't see any hands we are ahead of that take this same line, villain most likely has 64, A4, AA, 66, and maybe AxKh. This is, of course, assuming that villain is for sure playing straightforward "value poker," which can almost never be guaranteed in a blind steal situation. The fact is that you are in a huge pot and our opponent is at the river with a pretty wide range,(tho, he's probably not raising it) that doesn't have us beat. Not to mention, folding here strongly advertises that you are able to make huge folds. So call, maybe for value and for metagame.