WCOOP $1050 Critical Hand

NYWalker · #1 09-25-2007, 02:31 PM

(I removed this hand after I found out I misplayed this hand on the flop because I forgot villain's pf re-raise on the flop. But now, I want to get some inputs here.)

Info:
I moved to this table 1 orbit ago. No read to anyone.

Blinds 5k/10k/1k.
Fold to me. I raise to 30k at MP with 77 (I have 741K). Fold to BB (slimshaggy, 989K) who re-raises to 109k.

Normally, I fold at this spot. Because,
1. I think it's deep enough for me to look for a set;
2. I have no read to villain, no sure he's making a move or re-raise with real hands.

I call.

Two players, pot 230K.
Flop 325r.

Villain bet 140K.

Initially, I put him on overpair, QQ+. But the bet size really bothers me. It looks like a standard c-bet (**** My critical mistake **** - I completely forgot about his pf-re-raise here. Afterward, I don't think he's c-betting with air, it must be overpair.)

Anyway, I call to show I have over pair too. Hoping a good card hits the turn so that I can take the pot away from him. (he's OOP) On the other hand, given the texture and my calling range, villain could put me on TT,JJ,QQ,AK,AQs. Anyway, I expect him to slow down on the turn without AA,KK.

Pot 510K. Two players.

Turn, 4o. (board 3254r).

Villain bets 250K. (Since I forgot about his pf-reraise, I couldn't spot this a value bet or two-barrels when played this hand.)

Now, put my mistakes behind.

Tell me if we can take the pot from the turn.

I have 500K behind. I'm pretty sure I can push KK,QQ off. But if against AK,AA, I'm way behind.

However, why AA/AK bet??? He can only get the hands he beat fold. Is he betting (with QQ,KK) with intention to fold to a shove?

(It's a fold on the flop. But due to my misplayed the hand on the flop, maybe pf too, we see the turn now, is possible to take pot away? Please provide reasons/analysis in your turn action. Thanks.)

gordo16 · #2 09-25-2007, 04:50 PM

AK/AQ c-bet on flop and continue bet on turn, hoping for the exact push vs KK and QQ that you were thinking?

Ansky · #3 09-25-2007, 05:03 PM

fwiw kk and qq never ever ever bet this turn unless they misread the board.

You are up against a 2 barrel or a straight, thats it.

ChipRick · #4 09-25-2007, 05:03 PM

yeah i dont think slimshaggy needs KK QQ AA to cont bet the flop....i think his bet on the turn signals he wants to be able to fold to a RR...but knowing he is a good player, i dont think you can rep an ace here unless he puts you on a pure float...only thing i think you can rep is a set and he is only folding if he has KK QQ JJ

ChipRick · #5 09-25-2007, 05:09 PM

[ QUOTE ]
fwiw kk and qq never ever ever bet this turn unless they misread the board.

You are up against a 2 barrel or a straight, thats it.

[/ QUOTE ]

nice

NYWalker · #6 09-25-2007, 05:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
AK/AQ c-bet on flop and continue bet on turn, hoping for the exact push vs KK and QQ that you were thinking?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. That's not what I was thinking.

He clearly understands his turn bet would make QQ,JJ fold and AK/set push back, 66's flat call. On the other hand, if he checks with QQ,JJ, he knows I may bluff him with TT.

My thinkging is : at the turn, villain's range down to AA,QQ,JJ. Only these three hands. The flop bet is big pp. But turn bet can be bluff-blocking (with QQ,JJ) but would fold to a push or it can be AA bet for value in case I turned a set (I believe the later one a lot).

It's hard for me to indentify because this is the first hand I see him play, I don't know his betting pattern at all.

Ansky · #7 09-25-2007, 05:16 PM

NYWalker,

You consistently seem to make a really critical mistake, in that you think you can interpret bet sizes to narrow down exact hands from good players, who are NOT varying their bet sizes in this type of situation.

Also, it is a [censored] horrible read to put slim on jj, qq here. If he had jj or qq here then i will send u 50 dollars on pokerstars.

NYWalker · #8 09-25-2007, 05:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
fwiw kk and qq never ever ever bet this turn unless they misread the board.

You are up against a 2 barrel or a straight, thats it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are absolutely right. That's exactly what I was thinking.

Anyway, can we identify 2 barrel from straight? (from pf, flop actions, stacksize, etc...)

Ansky · #9 09-25-2007, 05:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fwiw kk and qq never ever ever bet this turn unless they misread the board.

You are up against a 2 barrel or a straight, thats it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are absolutely right. That's exactly what I was thinking.

Anyway, can we identify 2 barrel from straight? (from pf, flop actions, stacksize, etc...)

[/ QUOTE ]

If I had to guess i'd say he is probably 2 barreling you, as I think he would very frequently bet again w/ air, but quite often check an ace, though I'm not certain about that.

NYWalker · #10 09-25-2007, 05:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
NYWalker,

You consistently seem to make a really critical mistake, in that you think you can interpret bet sizes to narrow down exact hands from good players, who are NOT varying their bet sizes in this type of situation.

Also, it is a [censored] horrible read to put slim on jj, qq here. If he had jj or qq here then i will send u 50 dollars on pokerstars.

[/ QUOTE ]

$50?. I would consider I actually lost $10K or more from this hand. Because I kept thinking about this hand after folding.

Two barrels against a deep stack? I don't know.

Bet size does varry. But after a few hands/showdowns, I'll be able to make correct reads along with other factors.

I make critical mistakes? You bet. I made a lot of big mistakes in that tourny when I review my pokerXfactor.