AJ against a donker

[rzk]

full tilt $3/$6 6-handed, no reads on the players.
hero raises with AJo from CO. only BB calls.
flop is Q and two rags. BB bets, hero?

[Buckmulligan]

flode

[TheHip41]

no one knows, quite possibly the hardest part of poker to master.

[MacGuyV]

[ QUOTE ]
no one knows, quite possibly the hardest part of poker to master.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a good example of why my wtsd is higher @ 5/10 than 3/6.

[rzk]

wow and i expected posts about how standard this situation is and how stupid i am to even ask about it. well, at least is any one of the options - fold,call,raise - definitely off the table in your mind?

[27offsooot]

my default is fold> call > raise. But, fold and call are pretty close.

[bluf8u]

Just go all-in... ... ...that'll show em.

[jstill]

no read at all i think the standard is and should be fold.

If u look at it as how often ur hand is good to call down ud invest 2.5 bbs to win 5 assuming he ll fire all 3 streets with or without the best hand, calling down is hoping ur good far more often than i think u could expect.

If you look at it from odds to make the best hand assuming ur behind, ur only getting 5:1 to call with 6 outs max (not enough odds). Couple that with all the times you're reverse dominated and u dont have nearly the odds to call a bet assuming everytime he donks he has a pair.

looking at it from either perspective folding seems best, although this was oversimplified for sure and these two issues should be looked at conjointly: as what ur equity is against his entire range (tough to put an unknown donker on a very narrow one here though). Once u play someone for awhile though and metagame/reads get involved to the decision, it becomes much more ambiguous and hard to determine what is best outside of the vacuum.

[rzk]

great post, thanks. but what if we don't call down all the way but just peel the flop and see if he bets again and/or we improve?

another way to look at this is if we always fold it becomes very profitable for villain to bet in this situation regardless of his holding. with only one high card on the flop it's likely the raiser didn't connect so most of the time the donker wins 4.5 sb's for 1sb.

[jstill]

I dont know if i can give u the best response on this topic but...

ur question basically depends on a lot of factors u wont know how to quantify against an unknown. How often does he bet with a worse hand? how often does he bet with a worse hand and check the turn? how often does he bet with a better hand and check the turn? If you knew the exact frequency of all these things you could determine the optimal line.

Once you've played someone for a while and get a feel for how they play and a read on these kinds of tendencies, u can respond accordingly: whether the best choice would be to fold the flop or peel. Ideally u would want their pattern to be very predictable, they always do this with this kind of hand ie donk draws but check-raise TP usually or donk air sometimes or weak hands but ck fold or ck call the turn very often.

Its pretty rare though I find a peel here, most players are not that predictable and this is not a favorable spot. Esp against a relative unknown you will have a hard time proceeding on future streets and will be getting a poor return on ur investment. Can u raise an A or J turn? both are easy value bets if checked to on the river though.

Most will bet the turn again with worse hands if they donked the flop, so even if ahead u ll be folding it most of the time on the turn. If they are the type that will often ck fold or ck call with worse hands on the turn, peeling improves as an option. Altho if they play well they will probably be check calling with better hands on occasion as well for balance so again peeling loses appeal.

As for him having a profitable move donking all of these flops, I dont think that would be true against me. Obviously if someone is doing this a ton to u and u happen to just not be connecting and folding a lot u have to adjust moreso.

I think in general tho on Qxy Kxy flops if someone is donking into me I end up letting them put in 5 sbs postflop very often; which kills alot of the profit theyve picked up by stealing small pots with their donks every now and again.
What i mean by that is i have a very easy calldown with an underpair to the top card or second pair good kicker in this spot and an easy valuebet when they ck to me on the river.

Most of these players that donk really light often will end up firing 3 streets with bottom pair or a missed draw a lot or will bet bet ck call with a weak pair. If they are donking a ton though u have to let them hang themselves in these spots. U cant just raise QJ on the flop and fold the rest of the time if u dont want to be exploitable (id call to raise the turn with a hand as strong as QJ or QT), but just calling down with hands like Q weak kicker is great in these spots as raising just lets them off their bluffs easy and it punishes them and their donking strategy against u by giving them tough decisions about whether to fire again and has them often putting in bets behind not sure if u have anything or not.