AKs, turns TPTK against TAG and loose passive

Sigurd · #1 11-01-2006, 03:16 PM

UTG is 28/10/1.7 over 175 hands, and I haven't really seen anything unusual from him.
Button is 37/10/0.9 over 65 hands, and he were getting shortstacked (had something like 1 BB left after the hand).

PokerRoom 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 2 folds, Hero 3-bets, 2 folds, Button caps, 2 folds, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (13.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls, Button raises, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (9.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, Button bets, UTG raises, Hero calls, Button calls.

River: (15.75 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets, Hero raises, Button calls, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 21.75 BB

I stopped my session after this hand, and wrote down what I thought on the different streets, so I would be able to post my thought process, so I can figure out if there is something fundamentally wrong with the way I thought about the hand.

I'll post it here after an hour or two.

22pajo · #2 11-01-2006, 03:25 PM

I fold the flop. There is a guy behind you who has capped pre flop. He may be loose but he has capped. Now on the flop you are facing a raise and a possible re raise from a preflop capper behind you, not to mention the fact that you missed the flop. Let it go.

TexInAtl · #3 11-01-2006, 03:39 PM

I don't think you can fold the flop in a pot this big. On the turn, you make your hand, and I think you need to lead here. I believe leading the turn will define where you stand better. If you're raised on the turn, you can call the river. If you're called on the turn, lead the river.

Sushiglutton · #4 11-01-2006, 03:45 PM

On the flop we are getting 14.5 not closing the action. I think we should fold. As played on the turn I would lead. Button will probably check behind a big PP.

22pajo · #5 11-01-2006, 03:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you can fold the flop in a pot this big.

[/ QUOTE ]

My fold suggestion was based on the fact that our hand is at best worth 3 outs (6 outs discounted to 3 based on the times that we hit an A or K and still lose to someone with AA or KK). Sure the Pot is laying adequate odds for a 3 outer but we are not closing the action and there is someone behind us who has capped preflop.

Sigurd · #6 11-01-2006, 04:21 PM

I'm not really sure if I were a bit off my game here due to getting rivered with monsters 3 times in short successon (it was even the same loose passive guy) in a row on a different table.

My thoughts while playing:
Preflop: 3-betting, since that is what you do with AKs. I thought about cold calling, but decided against it.

Flop: I missed and UTG leads, which doesn't really mean a lot, since he continuation bets a lot. I call and hope to get lucky on the turn.

Turn: SCORE! I just got TPTK, which I'm pretty sure are the best hand at this point. I expect UTG to have a high pocket pair, or something like AK. I don't really know what button could have, but I probably had him on a hand like TT, JJ.

I'm certain that button will bet, so I just check, planning on reraising him, and catching UTG for an extra bet.

Now UTG raises, I think that he must have AK. I check, so I avoid having button fold (I see him as an overlay right now).

Turn: UTG bets, and I reraise because I'm fairly certain that button will call, since the pot is so big, and he has very little money left (desperation call).

River: I had UTG on AK on the river, so I reraised since I were pretty sure that button would call, since he only had 2.5 BB left.

If you can spot some errors in my way of thinking about the hand, I'm very interested in hearing them, so I can fix it.

YesMehFriend · #7 11-01-2006, 06:49 PM

Since btn isn't very aggressive pf his capping range should look much like this: JJ+, AQs+, AKo.
That's a problem for your flop-call. If he has AK you shouldn't call because you're drawing to like 1.5 outs.
If he doesn't have AK, he'll raise the flop virtually always, giving you odds of ~8 to 1 (I assume UTG doesn't 3bet, since you could fold to that).
8 to 1 is quite bad when you hold like 4 outs and might be up against a monster.

Stove gives you ~8% chance to win on the flop and a good amount of this comes from pairing on the river (will you see a river ui?).
It's tough but I think we can let it go on the flop.

00Snitch · #8 11-01-2006, 07:11 PM

hey, this is just like another thread i responded to yesterday where you have a big pot on the flop, someone has donked into the pf raisor/capper action to you with the cappor behind you.

it sux, but i think fold.

drzen · #9 11-01-2006, 07:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not really sure if I were a bit off my game here due to getting rivered with monsters 3 times in short successon (it was even the same loose passive guy) in a row on a different table.

My thoughts while playing:
Preflop: 3-betting, since that is what you do with AKs. I thought about cold calling, but decided against it.

Flop: I missed and UTG leads, which doesn't really mean a lot, since he continuation bets a lot. I call and hope to get lucky on the turn.

Turn: SCORE! I just got TPTK, which I'm pretty sure are the best hand at this point. I expect UTG to have a high pocket pair, or something like AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you might only have a share of the best hand.

The action looks a lot to me like UTG has Ax, x is big and button has a medium-high pair, QQ-TT. But don't put villains on specific hands without good reason. You have no reason to put button on JJ/TT after the preflop or flop or when the action got to you on the turn. His play is consistent with hands that beat you or chop with you. I know that on TV players like Negreanu will say "I put him on a pair of 8s" but they mean "I put him on a hand like a pair of 8s". It's not a good concept to use in limit at all because you need to consider the ranges players might have, not a representative hand, because you consider each hand as part of a class of similar hands.

Some other thoughts: 28/10 is not a TAG. Preflop, you don't raise AKs "because that's what you do with AKs". Please have a think about why you raised it. Flop, raise it if you're playing it. You hope to shut button out, so he doesn't play his AK. If he threebets, you're probably dead and if UTG actually has a hand, it's coming back to you capped, so you have an easy fold. UTG is not continuation-betting. He didn't cap PF so is donking this one. Turn, the action shows you calling, not reraising. I think calling was better here anyway, and I'd have just called the river. You were lucky button called. Better to overcall and take your share of his bet because most times he'll fold, shortstacked or not, if you're beating him.

YesMehFriend · #10 11-01-2006, 07:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: I missed and UTG leads, which doesn't really mean a lot, since he continuation bets a lot. I call and hope to get lucky on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

He is not c-betting and unless you have a good read, his bet means alot. He doesn't bet just after raising pf, he's betting a fairly ragged flop after it went 3-bet - cap behind him pf. He can expect to be up against very decent hands so this bet is far more than a c-bet.
Look at it this way: this flop will never get checked through after the pf-action, therefore he doesn't have to protect a pp with a bet, he can c/r. And his bet has like 0 fe so he can't be semi-bluffing.
I expect this to be a valuebet (mainly going for a bet - 3bet) most of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
Now UTG raises, I think that he must have AK. I check, so I avoid having button fold (I see him as an overlay right now).

[/ QUOTE ]

He can have AK 6 ways but also AA 1 way and 99 3 ways ... so AK isn't the only hand you should consider.
(Btw.: If you assume he can play AKo this way on the flop, then why can't he play AQ the same way? Honestly, if you haven't considered AQ, I think your river raise is incorrect).