1.5 BIs with AA facing heat: NLCASH

[MasterLJ]

Opponent is semi-straightforward. He definitely doesn't make big moves like this. We played maybe 500 hands and I can only remember two times where the action went the following hand:

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.50/$1 Blinds
2 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

Hero (BB): $151.50
SB: $0.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $3.00</font>, SB calls $2.00

Flop: ($6) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $6.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $20.00</font>, SB calls $14.00

Turn: ($46) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $35.00</font>, <font color="red">SB raises all-in to $255.10</font>, Hero!??!?!

[IronFly]

[ QUOTE ]
Opponent is semi-straightforward. He definitely doesn't make big moves like this. We played maybe 500 hands and I can only remember two times where the action went the following hand:

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.50/$1 Blinds
2 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

Hero (BB): $151.50
SB: $0.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $3.00</font>, SB calls $2.00

Flop: ($6) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $6.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $20.00</font>, SB calls $14.00

Turn: ($46) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $35.00</font>, <font color="red">SB raises all-in to $255.10</font>, Hero folds and dodges a set



[/ QUOTE ]

nh

[MasterLJ]

The part about the "semi-straightforward" and "no big moves" works both ways... as in he hasn't shown he would do this with the nuts (even OOP) and he hasn't done this in spots I'd consider "bluffy".

[KakiTee]

46 seems possible, as lots of people seem to pot draws OOP - maybe TT, but its a fold considering how little of the range you beat.

- he probably has a set or 67 80% here

[Wu36]

meh, i think you're ahead here a decent amount. but i doubt he flatcalled with air on the flop to make this play, so lots of the stuff youre ahead of turned big hands or decent semibluffs.
im discounting wheel draws cause that seems a mite suicidal, so id say you see something like 45,46,56,96(no?)97, sets, 78, 9x spades maybe. without running the equity calcs it looks like folding isnt that bad, but if you think he can slowplay overpairs or if you just dont like folding aces i can see calling.

pretty sick spot, i probably call cause i hate folding.

[IronFly]

hmmmmmmmmmm

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.495% 69.49% 00.00% 22704 0.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 30.505% 30.51% 00.00% 9966 0.00 { KK-99, 55, 33 }

this is a good hand to think about. Its def not as straightforward as I first thought.

Have you been 3 betting frequently?

[MasterLJ]

Yes, we have been at war on the flop. He is leading 60-75% of flops and I've been raising a lot of them.

[Wu36]

Board: 9h 3d 4s 5s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.169% 31.17% 00.00% 384 0.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 68.831% 68.83% 00.00% 848 0.00 { 99, 55-33, 97s-96s, 76s, 65s, 54s }

with this and ironfly's calc looks like a call imo.

[kolotoure]

The problem I can see here is that I don't think this is ever air. I think his range is hands that you have you beat and hands that picked up a draw on the turn to go with their pair

[MasterLJ]

[ QUOTE ]
hmmmmmmmmmm

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 69.495% 69.49% 00.00% 22704 0.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 30.505% 30.51% 00.00% 9966 0.00 { KK-99, 55, 33 }

this is a good hand to think about. Its def not as straightforward as I first thought.

Have you been 3 betting frequently?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the problem. I think all of us would play for stacks on the flop for 1.5 BIs, does the turn really help that much of his range?