HU facing a 170 BB river shove: call or fold?

FoxwoodsFiend · #1 03-20-2007, 02:36 AM

Villain is 23/18ish in 6-max and called my 3barrel down with AJ on AT357 board, other than that no reads. I'm playing like I normally do, so figure out what he thinks of me. This is our very first HU hand and my only read on him is that he's my rakeback affiliate...he has 2700 and I cover.

Hero is in the BB with K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Villain completes, I raise to 30, he calls.
Flop (60): K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
I bet 40, he calls.
Turn (140): 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
I bet 110, he raises to 390, I call.
River (1020): 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
I check, he shoves for 1700.

Who calls? If you call, what's the lowest diamond you'll call with? What's the difference between the 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and the Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] here?

BobboFitos · #2 03-20-2007, 02:42 AM

this would be an awesome bluff

raptor517 · #3 03-20-2007, 02:42 AM

2d is almost same as Qd, they v v close, but def not hte same. sometimes i call sometimes i dont. just depends on how frisky i feel.

Praetor · #4 03-20-2007, 02:44 AM

is it too much of a jump to say that 23/18 6 max would auto raise any ace HU and justify calling based on that?

BobboFitos · #5 03-20-2007, 02:45 AM

FwF, you prolly know all this but it boils down to:
1. would he ever value shove the Jd here? Probably not, so yes, your hand is essentially any flush, with the exception of him bluffing with an inferior diamond (some of his bluffs > some of your bluff catchers)
2. do you think villain would smoothcall Ad then raise the turn with it? Would be an odd play with position (depends on his pf aggression) to just complete Ax.
3. tough spot. were you checkcalling the river or checkpushing? Id probably just lead here because i fear mid diamonds check behind far too often.

BobboFitos · #6 03-20-2007, 02:46 AM

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is it too much of a jump to say that 23/18 6 max would auto raise any ace HU and justify calling based on that?

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i was thinking along these lines but some peopel do weird stuff (limp/call AX or AXd) and then smoothcall Ad w/ no pair only to semibluff raise the turn

FoxwoodsFiend · #7 03-20-2007, 02:48 AM

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is it too much of a jump to say that 23/18 6 max would auto raise any ace HU and justify calling based on that?

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i definitely took this into consideration, but 170 bbs seems like a lot to pay to find out if someone got lazy preflop

FoxwoodsFiend · #8 03-20-2007, 02:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
FwF, you prolly know all this but it boils down to:
1. would he ever value shove the Jd here?

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You guys have as much info as I do, but I agree with you that probably not. This is just some 5-10 guy who's never struck me as being anything but average.
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2. do you think villain would smoothcall Ad then raise the turn with it? Would be an odd play with position (depends on his pf aggression) to just complete Ax.

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Again, your guess is as good as mine, but yeah I'd be surprised by this also.

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3. tough spot. were you checkcalling the river or checkpushing? Id probably just lead here because i fear mid diamonds check behind far too often.

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I was check/calling. Didn't really think we had enough history for a value c/r.

BobboFitos · #9 03-20-2007, 02:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
FwF, you prolly know all this but it boils down to:
1. would he ever value shove the Jd here?

[/ QUOTE ]

You guys have as much info as I do, but I agree with you that probably not. This is just some 5-10 guy who's never struck me as being anything but average.
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2. do you think villain would smoothcall Ad then raise the turn with it? Would be an odd play with position (depends on his pf aggression) to just complete Ax.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, your guess is as good as mine, but yeah I'd be surprised by this also.

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3. tough spot. were you checkcalling the river or checkpushing? Id probably just lead here because i fear mid diamonds check behind far too often.

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I was check/calling. Didn't really think we had enough history for a value c/r.

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1 - fair enough
2 - for what its worth, i think if you called and lost to the nuts, he flopped it, rather then rivered it. my 2 cents.
3 - ahh k. the beauty of a c/r (not that i need to sell anyone) is so many interpret your line as nuts or not, so you can get called by alot of flushes that value bet (say, Jd) but barring history c/c seems reasonable..

TheJared · #10 03-20-2007, 04:09 AM

This looks like a bluff to me. There are a couple of factors that sway my decision:

1) If he has just the Ad why is he raising this turn?
2) If he already had the flush why is he massively overpotting the river instead of betting an amount that you can call with a Q or J of diamonds. The nuts value bets this river a lot of the time.
3) He limped preflop (unlikely to have Ad)
4) His line on the turn does not make sense with his line on the river. There is a huge disparity between the hands he is representing with these two bets. Something seems fishy.