25nl: Flopped nut flush, turn line?

[Flups]

So, woohoo, flopped the nuts. Say I put opponent on most likely a flopped set and maybe a lower flush, overpair or 2 -pair. On the turn effective stacks are almost $22 and the pot is $10.65. My problem is this: if I bet (close to)the pot now, I have less then 1/2 a PSB left on the river and can't get away then when the board pairs and he possibly filled up. If I overbet push now, I might not get as much value out of the hands I put opp. on. And if I check with the intention of CRAI-ing, opp. might take the free card. What do I do now and what do I do when the river pairs?

Before I forget: over 131 hands opp. is 9.9/0/0.23

Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.15/$0.25
7 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
HERO: $26.15
UTG+1: $7.60
MP1: $25.90
CO: $30.55
Button: $36.55
SB: $18.10
BB: $32.95

Pre-flop: (7 players) HERO is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">HERO raises to $1</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 3 folds, BB calls.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($4.15, 4 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">HERO bets $3.25</font>, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, BB folds.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($10.65, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">HERO ?</font>

[CalledDownLight]

Bet $7.5. Shove ALL rivers.

[Jay.Yang]

it's important to get the money in. villain's AF is so low that he's prob not gonna bet for you if you check, therefore i would bet 2/3 pot and bet again on river. don't get fancy with him.

[swainy]

I was in this situation yesterday, altho my opp. was fishy.

I c/r'd the turn and when i posted it here the response to that move was fairly negative. Instead, I was advised to make a bet that the K high draw could call, maybe half to 2/3 of pot, so that we get the money on the turn, because if no heart comes opp will fold. As the turn was a king, a call becomes even more likely.

If you make this bet, perhaps a set or 2 pair will shove? It could possibly look like you hold Ace [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] alone and are trying to see a cheap river.

[ranka]

[ QUOTE ]
My problem is this: if I bet (close to)the pot now, I have less then 1/2 a PSB left on the river and can't get away then when the board pairs....

[/ QUOTE ]

How you can fold the nut flush? I cant, never, ever!

On the flop I would bet less because I really want that Kd (or other lower diamonds), will call my bet. Also the set will reraise you if you do smaller bet to kill flush odds (if he fears 3 hearts on the board). I would bet 2.5$. Is it mistake and standard is better?

On the turn fire next bullet. If he is drawing and you check, he will check behind and dont even think that you will get any money on the river if his draw misses. Also he may check with KQ/AK and if 4 diamonds arrives - bye-bye goldbag. I would bet 6-7$ on the turn.

[FireStorm]

Bet $6.50 on the turn, get it in on the river. Why are you concerned about losing the hand on the river when you have the nuts on the flop/turn? Don't worry about getting outdrawn.

[CazicT]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet $7.5. Shove ALL rivers.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really weren't ever planning on folding just because the board pairs were you? You aren't deep enough to consider that. It isn't even at all a certainty that he even has a set right now anyway.

[threads13]

It's a logical flaw that others have pointed out. Think about your goal for the hand. Isn't your goal to get all the money in since you are committed? Then why are you thinking about folding on the river? You don't even have any major evidence that he indeed has a set.

Since your goal is to get all the money in you should bet to achieve that goal.

[FairyTales]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet $7.5. Shove ALL rivers.

[/ QUOTE ]

On this hand even if villain have KK,99,77,33 (he may also have KK with a heart same with QQ, AK) you are a 77% favourite to win the hand.

IMHO thinking about folding the river if the board paired is symptomatic of the "Monsters under the bed" syndrom, which have been quite frequent lately on the forums (The "should i fold trips" kind of topics). You are a HUGE favorite, extract the most money that you can when you have an edge (especially an edge this large).

[Flups]

Ok, thanks for your responses.

This is how it played out:

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($10.65, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">HERO bets $8</font>, MP1 calls.

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($26.65, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">HERO is all-in $13.9</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP1 calls all-in $13.65</font>.
Uncalled bets: $0.25 returned to HERO.

Results:
Final pot: $53.95
<font color="#ffffff">HERO shows QH AH </font>
<font color="#ffffff">MP1 shows 3S 3D </font>


So, once the river paired the board I really expected to be beat by a full-house and maybe be ahead of some lower flush or K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] hand, and since I wouldn't fold at this point anyway, I shoved it. Nothing I could do, right?

Interesting thing then however: how deep have remaining stacks got to be before an AI river bet doesn't become automatic and, for example, a bet-fold line would be the way to go?