Rugby Internationals

[hedgie43]

One play this week.

All Blacks -35.5 (+110) on The Greek. All Blacks are going to crush a despondent French team that is not only third rate, but doesn't even want to be there. While technically not a completely first choice All Blacks team, they have tremendous depth and guys like Reuben Thorne will be looking to book a place at the World Cup. Handicap should be closer to 50.

Keep an eye on the Ireland-Argentina line, too. I like Ireland +3.5 but want to see if it moves a bit more.

[hedgie43]

Ireland +3.5 still available so I'm on it. Argentina doesn't have the backs in this game to blow it open so it will be a closely fought encounter that the Irish could easily win. While Ireland +130 is +EV, the 3.5 points is much more +EV.

Showers tonight in Auckland but it won't matter. Jump on the All Blacks.

[dennison]

Don't be discouraged, mate. Poor conditions, bad handling, poor penalty kicking, bad scrummaging, and suspect officiating. Why Argentina wasn't penalised for collapsing the Irish scrum on their own line is beyond me. Chalk these ones up to variance, and the ABs not having their scrum sorted (nor needing to).

[hedgie43]

Yeah variance is a killer in rugby because there are so few games to bet on per year, especially compared to a sport like baseball.

This week I like Samoa +40.5 against the politically selected Bok second stringers. Also on Australia -46.5 against a poor Fijian team.

[hedgie43]

Ship it. I'll also take a line of anything better than -1000000 next week on NZ-Canada.

[bismillahno]

I'm not a sports bettor at all, but I was curious if anyone had seen lines on the world cup winner. NZ is currently paying something like $1.46 to win, (risk $1 to win 46c) and it seemed ridiculously low. I can't imagine any team being > 80% to win a world cup semi or final, which is what you need for such a low price.

And its 2 months before the tournament even starts, very easy for there to be a major injury or two, NZ already has its number 6 and 7 locks in the squad. That or losing a couple of trinations games should see that line tumble, setting up an easy hedge. Am I missing something here?

[hedgie43]

Lock is a big problem for the All Blacks at the moment. Williams, Eaton and Ryan are all very good. This week Henry is trying out the locking combination of Thorne and Flavell which works for Canada but would be a disaster against any top 10 team. Also NZ is going to have a tough matchup in the QF against one of France, Ireland or Argentina. Is there somewhere other than Betfair where you can bet against NZ winning the RWC?

[bismillahno]

Betfair is the only site I've seen that lets you lay it directly, but if you just take SA, France, Australia, England and Ireland together, you've basically got the field. I guess you can include Wales and Argentina in that too. Obviously thats kind of a pain in the arse though. I'm guessing Americans can't use Betfair.

You agree with the general thought that the price for NZ seems way too low currently?

[cboevey]

Way too low. Known for choking in world cups and not a dominating performance in the super 14 comp. Playing in the northern hemisphere - I spoke to a former international player and he told me you can not believe the difference, the moisture on the ball in Europe is different to the southern hemispere and makes handling difficult. For this reason alone I think France, Ireland are underrated and S.A., N.Z. are overrated. S.A. specifically does not have a good record in Europe.

[dennison]

NZ are not overrated. They are, quite simply, just THAT good.

Price is low but I would stay away from all RWC futures for now. I haven't bothered to run any calculations as I don't anticipate any value, but after having a quick look over, highest EV propositions seem RSA and England.

That said, I can't remember a world cup having this overwhelming a favourite since Australia at this year's cricket. Mind, the same could be said of Brazil at the FIFA World Cup last year.

Avoid, for now.