squeeeeeeeeeeze

27offsooot · #1 04-11-2006, 11:59 PM

Flop is probably bad, but i would like to hear how bad. BB is moron 60/20 type, sb is a TAG.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB 3-bets, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (12 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, BB calls, UTG folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (11 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, BB calls, Hero calls.

River: (14 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero raises

Buckmulligan · #2 04-12-2006, 12:06 AM

I really cannot understand the flop raise.

Yup, there's that sb three bet, what a shocker.

I'd fold to his three bet, to be perfectly honest.

What are you doing on the river?

27offsooot · #3 04-12-2006, 12:15 AM

so u never check blank flops after three betting PF OOP? I'm pretty sure that this is AK/ AQ/ 99 much more than other hands. TAGs should be betting overpairs and 1010 100% of the time especially with idiot BB that could raise 22.

Levarkin · #4 04-12-2006, 12:15 AM

The river I'm actually warming up to. One of those "When You Do Not Want Overcalls" situations. If BB is as moronic as OP says, we might be good against him but not SB, and we might get SB to lay down QQ here. That's the only hand I can think of that I WANT SB laying down, which I'll admit is weak, but it's a big pot, and worth taking a stab at. SB's play really points to QQ, so I'm beginning to see it.

The flop I would characterize as not that bad, really. The SB check-raise was that predictable? Hero is consistently trying to muscle out SB to isolate BB, and given the reads, that's a good play.

PokerSparky · #5 04-12-2006, 12:24 AM

Ed Miller would be proud.

damaniac · #6 04-12-2006, 12:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
The river I'm actually warming up to. One of those "When You Do Not Want Overcalls" situations. If BB is as moronic as OP says, we might be good against him but not SB, and we might get SB to lay down QQ here. That's the only hand I can think of that I WANT SB laying down, which I'll admit is weak, but it's a big pot, and worth taking a stab at. SB's play really points to QQ, so I'm beginning to see it.

The flop I would characterize as not that bad, really. The SB check-raise was that predictable? Hero is consistently trying to muscle out SB to isolate BB, and given the reads, that's a good play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, it really looks like QQ, and I don't think he'll call two cold with it. As far the BB, well, a 60/20 type probably bets any K that got to this point but also any J and any T too. I can't/won't do the math to figure this out, it IS quite a parlay, but I think it might be good given the pot size.

Buckmulligan · #7 04-12-2006, 12:46 AM

Why is anyone actually considering playing past the flop. When Sb three jacks, do you really think he has ak or 99?

Levarkin · #8 04-12-2006, 12:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Why is anyone actually considering playing past the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero is closing the flop action getting 21:1 after the 3-bet. I'll take our dirty overs and BDSD for that.

If you mean the turn, we're down to 13:1, but given our additional outs, I'll take that too.

ShakeZula06 · #9 04-12-2006, 01:12 AM

meh, don't like it. Only unpaired hands are AK-Q, so it works then but a decent % he's got TT+, all of which beat u and he isn't folding. I can see calling the 3 bet only for an ace. After he bets again I give up, looks like he's going to SD most likely, and that doesn't boad to well. I don't like raising the river either, you have to make the tag fold a better hand and the 60/20 call with a worse hand more often then a better one.

I think I either flat call the flop or just fold it. Don't get to carried away with AJo UI 3 ways against a tag 3 better.

Pog0 · #10 04-12-2006, 01:35 AM

I think an important question to ask is, 'if SB will fold QQ to our river raise, how often does he have to have it for this to be a profitable play?'

It's not 7.5:1 because we still have to account for BB's hand range. Let's say we're ahead of BB 50% of the time and he's calling every time SB folds.

We invest 2 BB on the river.
We win 15 BB 50% of the time that SB folds. That's 3.75:1, which means that SB has to have QQ 21% of the time here IF HE FOLDS IT EVERY TIME.

If we beat BB 50% of the time and SB folds QQ 50% of the time, then SB has to have QQ 42% of the time for this to break even...

I'm not sure which numbers to believe, but this doesn't look all that good. It might be close.

Consider:
How often does SB fold QQ?
How often does SB have QQ?
How often do we beat BB?