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#1
09-20-2006, 09:10 PM
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PS 27, AQ, 4 handed 4th about the blind out, dillemma :(
PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t600 with t50 antes (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com
CO (t4545) Button (t6230) Hero (t1935) BB (t790) Preflop: Hero is in SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="red">Button raises to t1200</font>, Hero calls t900, <font color="gray">BB folds</font> Flop: (t3200) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players) Hero checks, <font color="red">Button bets t1200</font>, <font color="gray">Hero folds</font> I figured it was worth the call, seeing as I still had enough chips to outlive the other shortstack and if i missed the flop and if i hit i would have a chance for 1st 2nd place.. What happined was I missed the flop, had to fold to his bet, shortstack went on to win the next hand where has was auto all in with K4 making trips, winning 200 chips, I was facing all-in BB before him, pick up AT next hand decide its beter then a random hand that I am gonna get next hand, so I go all in with my 630ish chips, SB reraises me and beats me with pockets 4s and I bubble... Was my call just stupid or worth the risk compared to the unlikeness of me missing the flop,the shortstack winning the next handed pot and then me losing in the next hand? Any thoughts? I feel now like I should have just folded, but maybe result orientated, and sorry for the long story... maybe some maths i just little dumbfounded what happined, chance of missing flop 2/3 chance of shortstack winning his auto all in next hand, 1/3?, chance of me losing the choice of the next 2 hands, 2/3? thats 2/3*2/3*1/3 = 15% this losely calculated 15% chance i still bubble after calling him > or < my +EV when i call and hit my hand? 
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#3
09-20-2006, 09:57 PM
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Re: PS 27, AQ, 4 handed 4th about the blind out, dillemma :(
I'd play it the same...so long as you donated your last few next hand to ensure his demise (looks like you'd be AI first if he nearly triples up w/random next hand).
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#4
09-20-2006, 10:01 PM
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Re: PS 27, AQ, 4 handed 4th about the blind out, dillemma :(
Yea he is SB auto all in next hand with 50 chips , CO calls, i fold on button, BB checks,he wins 3handed game goes to 200. I get AT next hand, facing the BB all in next hand before the other shortstack has to go all in I obv go with the AT above a random hand next hand and lose.
Was little pissy when that series of unfortunate events happined to still bubble me but as long as I made the right play all is good. Thanks for the replies guys
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