Tough spot at a 4/180 FT holding TT?

[Andrew1593]

Hey guys, I have what may or may not be a tough spot at a FT for you here:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t2000 (4 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Button (t45163)
Hero (t159880)
BB (t31989)
UTG (t32968)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t44963</font>

Button had been pretty tight since the start of the FT. Certainly the two shortstacks to my left have been way more active. I anticipate being HU with the button after the two shortstacks are eliminated. Do I take this chance here to knock out my biggest competitor? I think it's a very good holding for 4-handed play, but then again I could find myself in a coinflip situation where half the time I end up tied for biggest stack, whereas right now, I'm crushing the table. Since the BB is shortstacked, it's not exactly a squeeze play, but I don't really want him in on this hand either. I have little doubt in my mind that a call here would be +cEV, but is it possible that it's -$EV? I read a post a little earlier where shaundeeb said he never passes up a +EV situation in a MTT. That mentality leads me to believe I should make the call here, but I'm curious what others think. Thanks guys.

[Bill Smith]

Has Button shown anything down? Any noticeable tendencies of his bet size matching hand strength? Has BB made very loose PF calls for large parts of his stack?

Geez... yeah, tough spot. You're almost never against AA/KK/QQ here. His range is probably JJ-88/AK/AQ/AJs, so I think you're right that you're ahead. I don't hate a call, but I would argue that keeping your dominating position secure at this point is more +EV than calling. If your EV for calling is t8000, but your EV for folding and continuing to push your big stack is t10000, then folding is the right choice.

Am I making sense?

[plzleenowhammy]

call.. :shoulder shrug:

[Andrew1593]

Hey Bill, thanks for your response.

Button has only shown 1 hand down at the FT. A shortstack went all in and he reraised to isolate with AQs. He's made a few normal raises in the last couple orbits, but it's hard to match hand strength to bet size. Button has also made what appear to be resteals on UTG, who has been very active.

The more I look at this situation, the tougher it seems to be. Even if I fold every hand for the next 5-6 orbits while 2 players are eliminated, I'll probably end up HU with a slight chip lead. And no doubt two big stacks clashing is +EV for the two shortstacks. Yet probably half the time, I'll end up 3-handed with an enormous chip lead over the two short stacks.

Some simple math:

Let's assume TT is 55% to win against his shoving range. 55% of the time I'll end up with 210k in chips and 45% of the time I'll end up with 110k in chips. That makes my equity for calling:

.55*210+.45*110=165.

Wow. Calling might be +cEV here, but just barely. I wonder if the villain knew enough game theory to know that his bet size was almost the exact indifference point (HA!). Come down on the side of folding, then, to keep my position secure?

In terms of $EV, I might estimate it like this:

Right now, I have 60% of the chips at the table and, to be generous, we'll say I have a slight skill advantage, so I'll win the tournament 65% of the time. And with lower frequency, I place 2nd or 3rd, so my equity for folding is as follows:

0.65*216+0.25*144+0.1*85=$184.9

Now, if I call here and win, I'll have 78% of the chips at the table, and assuming the same skill advantage, say an 83% chance of winning the tournament. If I call and lose, I'll have 40% of the chips and my skill advantage will probably be mostly negated without a big stack to back it up. So I will have a 40% chance of finishing 1st and a 40% chance of finishing 2nd. This makes sense since the button will have a stack equal to mine if he wins this hand. Thus my equity for calling is:

0.55(0.83*216+0.1*144+0.07*85)+0.45(0.4*216+0.4*14 4+0.2*85)=$181.95

I know I'm fudging the numbers a bit here, but it definitely seems possible that this situation is slightly +cEV and -$EV. Thoughts?

[levAA]

in this situation (with just 4 players left) a call is always +EV (chips and $).
you are ways in front of his range, as i don't believe he would play AA-QQ(JJ) like this.
somtimes you will be a small favorite against 2 overcards, somtimes a solid favorite against a smaller pair, and i also think there are many times when you face somthing like A9,87s....
so don't overthink this - you hold a very good hand - call.

[shaundeeb]

this is a really really easy call, You aren't in a coinflip more then you can imagine a lot this is a smaller pair that is too weak to comfortable raise/call your shove so he just shoves cuz that's what people do when unsure. It also can be AK AQ a lot but this is basically never JJ+. I call with 77 here prob muck 6s though.

[Dunkman]

I haven't read any of the responses, but I snap call here, we're good like almost always.

[tomek322]

Call, even if you lose having another stack at 100k, should make it easier to eliminate the short stacks.

[Andrew1593]

Thanks for the responses, guys, I appreciate the advice.

shaundeeb--you say that you would call with 77 and muck 66. What's your reasoning there? Perhaps because with 77 there are more underpairs than overpairs that he would make this move with? (Ruling out QQ-AA, that leaves us with 5 underpairs and 4 overpairs).

To stir up more discussion: we know that the big stacks clashing is very +EV for the two shortstacks to my left. His calling range should be very narrow here since he has to risk 0 chips to move up a place in the money. If our read on the BB tells us that he may be willing to gamble here in order to have a chance at 1st place, does that push us toward a call or a fold?

I would argue it pushes us toward a call since we're risking the same amount with a chance now to knock out two players and guarantee a finish in 1st or 2nd. Given that the BB's calling range will overlap some with the button's shoving range, the equity of our TT is not greatly diminished by a third player's presence in the pot.

Agree, disagree? Why?

Edit: A follow-up question--what's your calling range here if you're the BB? I suppose it comes down to whether or not you think all that matters is winning. Still, I'm curious how wide people's ranges are even if they're the gambling type.