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Old 11-21-2007, 10:01 PM
DawnToDusk DawnToDusk is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: @ The Grind Factory
Posts: 943
Default 10NL - Best PF line with TT OOP against a gross aggro overbetter

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.05./$0.10.
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $2.50
UTG+1: $16.37
CO: $4.30
Button: $8.35
Hero: $9.82
BB: $1.78

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to $2</font>, 2 folds, Hero ???


The UTG+1 player has only been at my table for 15 mins or so but has some sick stats. They are 71/33/1.67 over 21 hands. My read on him is that he will grossly overbet the pot by 2-10 times the size of the pot. For example if it is 3 handed on the flop and checked to him and there is only $0.30 in the pot he will bet $3. The same stands for PF betting as his opening bet is $1.

Now on a side note we haven't seen a single hand that he has raised with. So with that being said what is the best line to take here? I figure that with his current stats (going off stats cuse the only read I have of him is his gross overbets) that my hand is likely good.

In my mind the only real options we have to maximize our expectation with our hand is to 1)push or 2)call and hope he bets the flop.

If we push I figure we only get called with the very best of his hands. I don't know what he is likely to call with since I haven't seen a single hand he has raised with (albeit it looks to be a wider range).

If we just smooth call and get a good board for our hand we can check it to him and hope he fires again and then we can come over the top. At the same time the last thing I want to see is a J, Q, K, or A roll off on the flop.
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