99 in SB, river decision

[Aces McGee]

full tilt 5/10

villain is unknown

Folded to me in SB and I raise with red nines. Villains 3bets, I cap.

Flop is AK5, all diamonds. I bet, villain raises, I decide to call.

Turn is an offsuit eight. I check and call the villain's bet.

River is the 8d, putting four diamonds on board and giving us a final board of AK588.

What's my best course of action? Choose from among bet/call, bet/fold, and check/call, as I think bet/3betting would be a bit much and I didn't come all this way to check/fold.

-McGee

[Allday Everyday]

I think this is an easy value bet with your flush. You probably have the best hand and he'll call with many hands you beat IMO. He'll check through river with many hands for a free SD he would have paid for. He'll also bet with the few flushes you can't beat that he wouldn't raise if you bet into him. What do you do if raised? I'd have to pay it off against the unknown in a blind battle. Hate getting raised if we can't fold to it, but I think you give up too much value if you check river. I don't think he'll raise often.

The more I think, the closer I think this decision is. One thing I'm thinking is that while he probably/definately won't bluff if we check to him, a lot of good players will correctly value bet their 2 pair no flush if we check to them. I still think it's a bet though.

[SNOWBALL]

bet/fold

[James.]

interesting spot, McGee.

bet and call a raise.

this is a blind vs. blind battle. people get way out of line in these situations. i'm afraid most any hand he wants to showdown that's worse than two pair is checking behind. since Ax makes up such a large portion of his range we give up too much checking to him hoping he'll make a thin valuebet with a one or two pair hand.

given the pot size, the blind v. blind scenario and typical aggression levels of players on this site at this level if we get raised, we need to payoff. the fact that he raised the flop AND bet the turn makes me think he pretty often has a made hand(usu. an ace) rather than a big diamond or a bigger pp with a bigger diamond.

[JJH3984]

I'd bet/call. I haven't played online 5/10 in about a year now, but I think the typical villain there is a bit too agro in blind stealing situations when a scare card comes. You want to bet because your hand has too much value and will be called by a lot of made hands that might check through this particular river, and you'll want to call if he raises because the pot will be offering you 11:1 and villian will bluff (or raise with a worse diamond) at least often enough to make calling correct.

[One Outer]

I'm bet/calling here. The risk of getting raised isn't as bad as the risk of villain checking it through.

[Mitke]

Villain would probably check through with an A now that he's kicker is probably out of the picture. Hero's play also looks like a (weak) A or FD from the flop onwards. In Villain's eyes there wouldn't be much value in betting.

Bet and... dunno. Hero donking the river looks awfully lot like he's fearing he'll lose value if he doesn't bet. We are not gonna get raised too often here without the villain having a better hand. Nevertheless, getting 11:1 is probably just about enough to be not sure and call the raise too.