Stupid superstition

Arito · #1 06-26-2007, 11:56 AM

At the risk of being branded a superstitious dumb-ass, I want to see if i'm the only one that thinks like this. Just a little disclaimer: I am a college graduate and have a firm grasp on statistics and mathematics (although this will no doubt be challenged by the end of this post). [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I have a 'feeling' that whenever I have lots of losing sessions, I am more inclined to win, and vice versa. This is not so bad, because I basically have to keep playing anyway to get to the 'good run' again or stop alltogether.

Much worse is that this extends to everybody using my computer. I have a roommate, that plays on the same (small) network, same stakes and same computer as I do. He currently has a big upswing and it is making me nervous to play, because I have some sort of feeling that I will have to balance his good luck with bad luck of my own.

This is not a new thing. In general, whenever he has a losing session, I am much more inclined to play than if he had a winning session. I have had this for the past couple of months and I think empirical evidence is backing me up on my suspicion. Obviously, my biggest concern is that my bad 'feeling' is actually causing me to play worse, turning it into a self fulfilling prophecy.

Poker is not the only thing I have this kind of feeling with. I don't gamble much anymore because of poker but whenever I play blackjack, I up my bet if the dealer has had a couple of blackjacks in a row. When I play Roulette, I always bet whatever hasn't fallen for about 8 spins. (Black when red hasn't fallen, 1-18 when 19-26 hasn't etc.)

I KNOW it doesn't make a difference in casino games (which is why I don't play them often), but it is making me play poker nervously.

Anybody have the same feeling or am I really a retard? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

El_Hombre_Grande · #2 06-26-2007, 12:24 PM

You are really a retard. Next question.

Just kidding. If you are playing worse, because of the voodoo thinking stuff, then its an actual problem. But it seems that you know that its make believe, (ie that the cards have no memory) so that should solve the problem.

Just play through it. If you find yourself playing "nervous," check the "sit out next hand" button and deal with it. You know its muddled thinking, just put your knowledge into action.

nineinchal · #3 06-26-2007, 01:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You are really a retard. Next question.

[/ QUOTE ]

PantsOnFire · #4 06-26-2007, 02:05 PM

Your mind is fu**cking with your mind.

Superstitions and curses for that matter are self-fulling prophecies. That is, if you believe, it is more likely to come true for you. For example, if somebody is cursed has something happen to them that they feel is a bad omen, they will not be acting in a normal way from that time on. They will be looking over their shoulder and this will make them more likely to "have an accident".

The other factor at work is biased or selective reinforcement. That is, when you believe something you tend to reinforce evidence that supports it and suppress evidence aganst it. An example of that is a guy walks under a ladder and nothing happens out of the ordinary. Another guy walks under a ladder and is run over by a car 10 minutes later. Even if in a million times nothing happens and one time a guy is run over, which do you think you are going to remember?

In the end, any time your mind is not 100% sure that you are playing your best poker, you are basically on a form of tilt. Just off the top of my head, I'd say that's a problem.

Reef · #5 06-26-2007, 02:37 PM

whenever I have the urge to think that, I say to myself 'nah I'm not retarded' and then move on

from your roullette and bj playing I'm guessing you're a degen?

MediaPA · #6 06-26-2007, 08:21 PM

k, as someone who did stupid things like this for awhile, avoid table games (you'll lose your shirt - you and I are whom the roulette history board is aimed)

The best thing is that I don't see any indication of moving up in stakes when running bad. This is the next progression to the 'theory' AVOID IT. Get this sorted now and not later.

soulshot · #7 06-27-2007, 02:22 AM

online poker is rigged

depends on the selected day you will hit every board every flop or you will hit a set and lose to higher set 20 times in 1k hands

sonneti · #8 06-27-2007, 12:14 PM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

Tom Ames · #9 06-27-2007, 12:19 PM

All superstitions are stupid. By definition, the ritualistic behavior of a superstition has no effect on future events.

That being said, you'd be hard pressed to find anyone without at least a few due to the capricious nature of the learning/conditioning that brings them about. You simply need to recognize them for what they are and not let them take control of your life.