A General Question for You About a Bet

[James.]

the action pf is irrelevant. say we are on the river HU, we have TT and we are first to act against a typical opponent for the stakes that we play.

the board: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

we have been betting and getting called by villain on each street. do we need the best hand 55% of the time to lead the river?

[_TKO_]

I'm assuming we're OOP, and I'm tempted to answer no, because sometimes we will induce a bluff by checking.

[HoneyBadger]

If you strongly believe he has a busted draw you should check if he will bet it. This is completely opponent dependent. Against a LP you have to bet. And it's 55% of the times he calls, not in general

[James.]

let me rephrase. do we need to be good 55% of the time when our bet is called?

[_TKO_]

We need to think that we're good 55% of the time, yes. Do you think otherwise?

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
We need to think that we're good 55% of the time, yes. Do you think otherwise?

[/ QUOTE ]

i know otherwise.

edit to say that sounds kind of cocky, huh?

[HoneyBadger]

Without getting into the discussion of the effects of him folding a better hand, or him raising you (that extra 5%), I'd think so, yes? That regardless of whether checking and calling might be a better play against this particular villain. You have new insights? Curious.

(somehow I expect you to say one should value bet more often...)

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
somehow I expect you to say one should value bet more often

[/ QUOTE ]

this is along the right track. it's not that i have some big discovery or anything, it's that i've noticed a common misconception around this forum about the 55% rule and it's relationship to river play.

[Ricks]

I thought that it was 66%, to compensate for the times that you get raised.

[ChexNFX]

How are you NOT ahead 55% of the time here?