Shove??? Flopped A high flush draw deep in tourny (3 left, 1 short)

[jlp_2908]

I was in the blinds with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
My stack and villians stack are about even, and the last guy left in the tourny has about 9000 chips left so he will be out very soon.

Both villian and I see the flop,
K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
I check.
Villian pushes all in. I KNOW he must have 2 pair, or TPTK. MAYBE even a set, but I doubt it.

Do I call, Gettin better then 2 to 1 odds(more like 4 to 1 if you consider the winner of this pot basically takes down the tourny)
Or, should I just fold, and wait for the third guy to lose all his chips and be gauranteed 2nd place? We will still be about even in stacks if I fold.

[seke2]

You omitted a lot of important information. Like, your stack sizes, the blinds, the payout structure, the preflop action, reads, and well, look, your post sucks.

I'm pretty sure this is a fold though, if the 3rd place guy is microstacked, you're usually better off waiting for him to bust from a $EV perspective.

[jlp_2908]

I dug up the hand history, sorry for not posting it.



Full Tilt Poker Game $1 + $0.25 Sit & Go , Table 5 - 1200/2400 - No Limit Hold'em
Seat 2: Villian (29,594)
Seat 3: Hero (27,626)
Seat 7: Opponent 3 (10,280)

Hero posts the small blind of 1,200
Villian posts the big blind of 2,400

*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
Opponent 3 calls 2,400
Hero raises to 4,800
Villian calls 2,400
Opponent 3 calls 2,400

*** FLOP *** [9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
Hero bets 4,800
Opponent 3 folds
Villian raises to 24,794, and is all in

[Sherman]

Well you changed the persons' names like a million times. So are there three to the flop or two? Also your PF play is horrid.

So is one opponent is all in when this happens? That is kind of important to know.

[jlp_2908]

PF= post-flop or pre-flop? The first post was from memory and Sorry I dont have a hand converter and had to write it all out manually

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
PF= post-flop or pre-flop? The first post was from memory and Sorry I dont have a hand converter and had to write it all out manually

[/ QUOTE ]

PF = pre-flop.

It's okay to write it out manually, just take your time to include all of the relevant information.

If you really just min-raised PF that is pretty much terrible IMO. You have ATs 3-handed. That is a monster. You should be raising more to isolate the shorty or to take down the blinds.

[seke2]

Preflop is a nightmare. If you want to raise there, minraising is completely ridiculous.

You've been playing with these guys for a while, and your read is that he has at least TPTK (so you're assuming he's not smart enough to bluff you on priciple here since this is a really exploitable spot given Opponent3's fold).

So assuming he has, let's say, Kx. I know you said TPTK, but he didn't raise preflop, so I don't think he has AK. You've got about 45% equity against Kx, 35% against two pair, 25% against a set. So you're getting proper pot odds, calling 17k to win ~40k. Odds are probably too good to pass it up, especially because I think you give him way too much credit on the strength of his hand, he didn't even raise preflop. And given the size of the shortie's stack, once shortie folds, he should know that he can raise and you will fold a lot of half-decent hands because shortie has folded and you don't want to bust ahead of him.

I'm not doing the ICM calcs for you, but I bet it's at least close. I had a spot where I "should" have folded QQ preflop 3-handed at a FT that feels similar to this. We did the ICM calc for that and it was a fold, and this feels like it's in the same territory as that...though you're going to be a lot shallower after the fold than I would have been, so that might swing it into borderline call range. If you want to learn something, figure out enough about ICM to do the math yourself.

[seke2]

Oh and you need to provide the payout structure for anyone else to figure ICM anyway, which I don't think you provided yet.

[nath]

call, pot odds, you're short, and god damn minraising preflop is the absolute worst play you can make