Have I Discovered Another Mathematical Football Coaching Error?

[David Sklansky]

I think I have, but it depends on some parameters. So before I reveal it I want to ask some preliminary questions. Please don't answer it before thinking about it a little because I won't let you wiggle out if you try to claim my conclusions are wrong when I base it on your own numbers.

1. Two good equally matched football teams. Two and a half minutes to go in the game. The team losing by 5 is on their own 20 and has two time outs left. About how often will they score a touchdown?

2. Same situation but they are down by one point. About how often will they score a field goal (assuming they have a good field goal kicker.)

3. Same as above. Down by one. About how often will they surprisingly score an unneeded touchdown?

I realize that the answers depend on a lot of unstated things but you can still give me a ballpark average, which should be good enough.

EXTRA CREDIT

Tell me what I am driving at.

[vhawk01]

Onside kickingmore often? I wont take stabs at your numbers because I'm sure they are available somewhere and someone will post real ones soon.

[Troll_Inc]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I have, but it depends on some parameters.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you going to take the median or average of people answers for your model?

[BowToYourSensei]

..........are u [censored] kidding?

[crzylgs]

I have no [censored] idea. I'll let others elaborate.

[SuperUberBob]

1/2. No idea really

3. Almost zero. Unless a routine mid-range pass breaks into a long, long TD, it ain't going to happen.

Well, I think I see the point you're driving at. In #1, you have the option to go for 2 after the TD, which allows for you to go ahead by 3. That would require the opposing team to get a TD for the win rather than a FG or TD. By getting a FG, the chances of your opponent getting a winning score is higher even though it puts you in the lead for the time being since they have more scoring flexibility.

Therefore, if the chances of 1 + 3 happening are greater than 2, then it may make more sense to go for the TD.

Something like that. I'm probably wrong though.

[ArcticKnight]

1 = 10%
2 = 25%
3 = less than 5% (Not every TD in scenerio 3 will be unneeded. For example, if your WR turns what should be 20 yard gain into a TD on the 1st play, you just left more than 2 minutes on the board. Your TD is hardly unneeded at that point.

I think you are driving at the fact that coaches are making -EV decisions early in the game that may see them needing a TD as opposed to a field goal late in the game, not fully realizing that they would be better off playing for 2 after a TD on many more occasions than they do. That is why you used "down by 5 points."

You are going to use our own numbers to show 2 point frequency rates and then discuss the gap between the percentages in questions 1 and 2.

[Pudge714]

I think you are driving at the fact that kicking two fgs is better.
Assuming they are both league average teams on both sides of the ball (Not two really good offensive teams and bad defensive teams) I would guess something like 20%, 35%, 5%, but I'm pulling those numbers out of my ass.

[smbruin22]

10%
30%
1% (but 3rd one is difficult... i doubt the coach considers the final TD unnecessary, but final score does.... )

[squashington]

1) 10-15%
2) 30%
3) <5%

There's some fuzzy math behind #'s 1&2, just took a guess for #3. No idea what you're driving at.