Preflop analysis of some hands of mine. Ignore if you wish.

[Str8Fish]

So the deal is that I'm looking through my 6-max actions and am trying to get a hold of some of the leaks I have. I've made some questionable calls preflop on my part and want to finally crunch through and prove to myself that these are leaks.

PokerStars 0.50/1.00 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB calls, Hero ...

I'm getting 7:1 on a call here, assuming UTG isn't gonna LRR.

Nice flops for me include
2-pair: J9x (3*3*48)*3=1296,
3 of a kind: JJx (3*2*48)*3=864, 99x (3*2*48)*3=864,
straight/draw: 678 (4*4*4*3)=192, 78T (4*4*4*3)=192, 8Tx (4*4*48*3)=2304, TQx (4*4*48*3)=2304
full house: JJ9 (accounted for), 99J (accounted for),
4 of a kind: JJJ (accounted for), 999 (accounted for)

Total flops that make me happy = 8016
out of a total of 50*49*48=117600, so there are a total of 6.8% of the flops that are great for me. = 13.7:1 on a call.

If we include top pair J hands...

Jxx (3*35*34*3)=10710 flops. Am I comfortable with top pair in this situation though? I would have to be able to fold top pair when it doesn't look good for this to be profitable.

10710+8016=18726 = 15.9% = 5.3:1

How often is top pair J's good to take on a preflop raiser?

[DrModern]

Str8Fish,

Fold.

Holla,
Doc

[milesdyson]

i call

also you're counting some flops more than once. T8x includes T87 and QTx includes QTx. J9x includes J9J and J99. perhaps there are more.

[Str8Fish]

well DUR. How many people needed to limp in prior to MP's raise for this to be profitable?

[Str8Fish]

If I use excel to figure out how often my top pair J's will be good for this to be an ok call, I get that it should be good around 65% of the time.

[Aaron W.]

You might be amused by this post from about a year and a half ago...

[Bilgefisher]

ok, I had a long drawn out reply, but I think it can be summed up with "How's your post flop play?" If you can outplay your opponents postflop, a close call like this becomes more standard. I just dunno if all that math is really going to help you with pf decisions when it is more dependent on your own play and your opponents play on those marginal hands.

I keep thinking back to the Miles sweat session about 2 weeks ago. I wouldn't play half the hands he did. Or at least I didn't fully understand how he could play those hands. But, he is obviously a strong player and those marginal hands win him money, where they would cost me money. This might be useless rabble, but thats how I see it.

[MrWookie]

Str8Fish,

Read Shill's posts in here:

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/...Number=2557351

[Shillx]

Consider X = 50*49*48

2 split = 3*3*44*6/X = 2.02%
Trips = 2 x 3*2*44*3/X = 1.35%
FH or Quads = 2 x 3*2/X = 0.1%
Straight (KQT,QT8,T87) = 3 x 4*4*4*6/X = 1.0%
Straight draw (QTx, T8x) = 2 x 4*4*40*6/X = 6.5%
Straight draw (876) = 4*4*4*6/X = 0.3%

So about 11.2%. Actually a bit less when you consider that you could get a flop like Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] that isn't all that great.

Like when you flop 2-pair, the flop can come out six ways and not just three. That is where the end term comes from.

J-9-2, J-2-9, 9-J-2, 9-2-J, 2-J-9, 2-9-J

And yes I would call pre-flop. It is almost worth it just on big hands alone. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[MrWookie]

Heh, I dig up your old posts faster than you can retype them [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

Also, good taste in beer [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].