Resteal against Belowabove. A4s in 10rb

[tinze]

About 70 players left on Stars 10 rb. Great play? Spewy?

Belowabove has been at the same table for few orbits and has been super laggy. Hero has been tight. Hero knows that villain doesn't need a real hand to open from early position.

P.S. I actually expected a call since I was laying 2:1 odds.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t8000 (8 handed)

Hero (t63212)
Button (t65272)
SB (t158766)
BB (t93092)
UTG (t198753)
UTG+1 (t198404)
BeL0WaB0Ve (t235940)
MP2 (t22392)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BeL0WaB0Ve raises to t19940</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t63212</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BeL0WaB0Ve folds.

Final Pot: t85552

[Clayton]

hes calling you with any semblance of a hand usually, v surprised he folded here, dont like. if u are moving i like a stopngo more.

[Confused1]

[ QUOTE ]
P.S. I actually expected a call since I was laying 2:1 odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was my thought, too. He won't lay down there, so that's really not a resteal. It's a value bet as played.

You only have 8 bbs and need to get some chips. This move may get those, but I think there are easier ways to pick up chips than trying to run A4s vs whatever below has.

[Rocco]

Spewy!

You expected a call, and still you push vs a range you're behind if called? That seems spewy, no? Add in the three players left to act, and I don't think I like it at all.

[tinze]

[ QUOTE ]

You expected a call, and still you push vs a range you're behind if called? Add in the three players left to act, and I don't think I like it at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

I expected a call like 70% of the time, but I thought my hand was ahead of his range. He was opening with any two. In that sense this is not a resteal at all. However, the fact that there was 3 players yet to act and I had very little fold equity agaist Below made my hand look much stronger than it actually was. That was the intention (and thats why I call this a steal). I wanted it to look super strong just to make those 3 players to fold.

[tinze]

[ QUOTE ]
if u are moving i like a stopngo more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im in position. Can't do that.

[tinze]

[ QUOTE ]
You only have 8 bbs and need to get some chips. This move may get those, but I think there are easier ways to pick up chips than trying to run A4s vs whatever below has.

[/ QUOTE ]

He was playing like 4 out of 5 hands, so there were very few situations where I could open steal. And as you said I only had 8bb's left so I couldn't wait much longer.

[JayPez]

i like it, your ahead of his range by miles.

recently below in his video showed when he folds with 2:1 is partly down to image reasons that he doesn't want to showdown a really weak hand he is raising with. However from an ev perspective. I think hes calling maybe 70% of the time here.

i put belows range as

22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T2s+,92s+,82s+,73s+,62s+,5 2s+,43s,A2o+,K2o+,Q2o+,J3o+,T5o+,95o+,85o+,75o+,65 o,54o 80% hands

below probably puts you on this range (quite loose)

55+,A4s+,KTs+,QJs,A8o+,Kqo

so his calling range should be. (not accurate because I havn’t bothered to check which hands play best vs the above range)

33+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J3s+,T5s+,95s+,85s+,75s+,65s,A2 o+,K4o+,Q6o+,J7o+,T7o+,97o+,87o

which puts you at 53% equity vs that range.

Pot pre = (400*8 + 4000 + 8000) = 15200.

30% he folds you win 15200 + 19940 = 35140
70% of the time he calls you win 15200 + 63212 = 78412
53% of the time = 41558
you lose 78412
47% of the time = -36853

41558 – 36853 = 4705

(.3 * 35140) + (.7 * 4705) = 10542 + 3293.5 = + 13835 chips.

3 players left to act but they are unlikely to call without 88+ ajs+ aqo+ (6.2% of hands)

ok so the chance that someone calls behind u is (6.2% * 3) = 18.6% and your 32.9% against that range. Below is VERY likely to fold if someone else pushes behind so I wont counter for that.

81.4% of the time they fold you win 13835
18.6% of the time 1 calls u win 19940 + ((15200 + 11200 + 7200) / 3) + 63212
19940 + 11200 + 63212 = 94352
32.9% = 31041
1 calls u lose 63212
68.1% = - 42415


31041 – 42415 = - 11374


(.814 * 13835) + (.186 * -11374) = 11262 – 2115 = + 9147 chips

so +ev by about 1 bb haha.

So overall this looks worthwhile to take the gamble now and try and double up. This may be the best spot to win some chips. If below is opening all the time you might not find good spots to open push.

Right off to play a 10 hour session!

jp