settle this hand argument...

[Megenoita]

Party 5/10, I'm sweating OurHouse. I can't get the converter to work...I know there's a new converter link if someone will hook me up.

5 handed, OH is MP with Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and open-raises.

Villain is just4u416 (27/17) and 3-bets from CO I believe. Rest fold, OH calls.

Flop (6.5 SBs): 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Hero checks, villain bets, hero calls.

He said his Q, J, and back door flush draw outs are enough to peel. Is this standard?

I was arguing a check/fold...thoughts?

[Woolygimp]

I fold. Villain could very likely have AQ,AJ,JJ,QQ,AA,KK.
I think most of his outs are tainted, and backdoor flush and straights are only 1/25. Definately not enough to peel.

Besides reverse implied odds are a bitch... He's got the better hand, give him the pot.

[hemstock]

Yes you have to see the turn.

[jt1]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes you have to see the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]


There are a couple of reasons why I disagree with this. 1) Hero is only getting about a break even price. 2) Hero may be reverse dominated 3) Villain could easily have a set or a pp and a straight draw which increases our reverse implied. 4)Villain has position

[Cancuk]

a call is -EV. What's the pot? 3 1/2 bets?

[Spy Dog]

I'm check-folding. You have Queen high against a decent player OOP in a small pot with no chance of spiking a card on the turn that you feel comfortable checkraising.

[Megenoita]

I realize you're joking, but he's getting 7.5:1, really 7:1 because of rake.

[Our House]

[ QUOTE ]
I realize you're joking, but he's getting 7.5:1, really 7:1 because of rake.

[/ QUOTE ]
Actually, I didn't notice after the first glance, but neither of us were in the blinds, so I was getting 8.4:1 (7SB + 1.4SB in dead money) less rake.

At worst, I'm drawing slim to 88 (3 combos). Next, I have 1.5 outs* against AA, KK and QQ (15 combos). Then, I have 4 outs* against AQ, AJ, KQ and KJs (39 combos). Lastly, I have 7 outs* against 77, 99, TT, AK, AT, A9s and A8s (56 combos).

When considering reverse implied odds, also consider:

A) Implied odds.....the times I hit (pair, 2 pair, straight, flush) and get paid by a worse hand.

and

B) Fold equity......I'm c/ring a non ace or king diamond turn which may win me the pot against half of those combos listed above.


Looking at everything at around 8:1, I think the decision is very close.


*I counted the BDFD as 1 effective out.

[jrbick]

I estimated that if we improve on the turn, we beat about 47% of villain's hand range assuming that there's no A or K on the river. I dont' see how we can raise when we do hit a pair, so we get 3.5:1 to call down from here. We may need to even bet/call the river if it's still Q or J high so it might cost us more a lilttle over half the time when we're behind and get raised. This could be offset a little bit though by the times that villain just calls our bet in fear of a better hand (i.e. he's only got 1P, etc). If we hit our flush I dont' think we get much more than this since we pretty much need to bet the river to which villain will probably just call. Anyway.

on the flop I thought it was interesting.

7.5:1 (11.7%) to peel. We're about 19-20% ( 47- 9 or 10 diaomnds / 10 or 9) to hit a diamond on the turn that will keep us there to the river. So, looking at it this way + the little bit of equity you can attribute for the 47% of the time that we beat villain w/ a Q or a J, I thought it might be pretty close, if not, totally correct to peel here HU. On diamond turn we're definitely making money by calling there too so the flop peel wasn't as bad as some were making it out to be. Granted, our Q or J gives a redraw to a fwe of villain's 3 betting hands.


Trouble verses KQ, AJ, AQ, 88, JJ, QQ, KK, AA -- 57 combos (53%)

Improved Turn pulls ahead of: 77, 99, TT, AT (I guess), AK -- 50 combos (47%)

Some of the "trouble" hands are only trouble some of the time anyway when he actually has that hand (KQ, AJ, AQ) and we hit that one shared card.

[Megenoita]

I think that was a great analysis Jrbick...I didn't check the numbers but the reasoning due to our being OOP was good.

I did the GoT-type of math, and although I'm no math guru, I concluded that this is decently close, but definitely a correct, flop peel.

My math didn't take into account that we're getting more like 8:1 on the flop call (I assumed 7:1). I also assumed we'd check/fold a Q/J river if the turn were A/K, which I don't think OH would do, so that's more marginal profit I neglected. Other than that, I think the math is fairly accurate, enough that given villain's probable hand range, it's definitely a peel. I came to his profit being somewhere around .38 BB/hand EV by peeling.

Even if we gave villain AA-77, AK-AQ, it's still a peel by about the same margin. My reasoning below:

7.5:1 (what about rake?) to call flop bet...I'm saying 7:1

OH says villain's range is AA-77, AK-AT, A9s-A8s, KQ, smaller likelihood KJs. Total combos:

AA (6) 1.5
KK (6) 1.5
QQ (3) 1.5
JJ (3) 1.5
TT (6) 7
99 (6) 7
88 (3) 1
77 (6) 7
AK (16) 7
AQ (12) 4
AJ (12) 4
AT (16) 7
A9s (4) 7
A8s (3) 7
KQ (12) 4
KJs (1.5) "stretch" so take away 50%
__________
115.5 combos

Brief estimate = 5 outs getting 7:1 (not 7.5 b/c of rake)
--> Need to average 1.4 SBs more when hit, only .7 BB profit post hit.

(Below math assumes many favorable actions and assumptions.)

*Non-A/K but diamond turn, probably raise, otherwise check/call, OH notes
**When A/K diamond fell and Q/J river came, I had us folding River getting 7:1 (?).

AT
AdTd (1)
AdTx (3)
AxTd (3)
AxTx (9)

For AxTx: When non-AK diamond hits turn, we c/r, he folds = 8/45 x +9 SB = +1.6
When AK diamond hits turn, we check/call, miss river = 2/45 x 35/44 x -3 = -.10
hit river ---> 2/45 x 9/44 x +11.75 = .10
When Q/J hits turn, we c/r, he folds: 6/45 x +9 = +1.2
When blank hits turn, we c/f: -1 x .64 = -.64

Total: 2.16 x (15/115.5) = .28 SB EV + .16 (see below) = .296 SB EV per hand

AdTd: When non-AK diamond hits turn, we c/r, he folds = 7/45 x +9 SB = 1.4
When AK diamond hits turn, we c/c...miss = 2/45 x 37/44 x -3 = -.11
hit = 2/45 x 7/44 x +11 = .08
When Q/J hits the turn, we c/r, he folds: 6/45 x +9 = 1.2
When blank hits the turn, we c/f: 31/45 x -1 = -.68

Total: 1.81 x 1/115.5 = .016 SB EV

AK

Should be approximately the same as AT, so we'll say:

Total: .296 SB EV

AQ, KQ, AJ

We'll do one and assume all are about the same, neglecting AdQd, KdQd, and AdJd b/c each will affect overall EV by only about 3/1000ths of a SB EV):

For AQ: When non-AK diamond hits turn, we c/r, he folds = 8/45 x 9 SB = 1.4
When Q hits turn, we c/r, he 3-bets, we fold = 3/45 x -5 = -.33
When J hits turn, we c/r, he folds, we win 9 = +.6
When turn is total blank = -.64

Total: 1.03 x (36/115.5) = .32 SB EV per hand

KJs

Should be same as KQ but total different:

Total: 1.03 x (1.5/115.5) = .0089 SB EV per hand

A9s

Should be same as AK but instead of overcard outs, gutshot.

Total: 2.16 x 4/115.5 = .075 SB EV per hand

A8s

When non-AK diamond comes on turn, we c/r, he calls, we miss river = 8/45 x 29/44 x -5 = -.58
we hit river = 8/45 x 15/44 x +13.3 = .8

When AK diamond hits, we check/call, hit diamond river: 2/45 x 9/44 x 11.25 = .10
When AK diamond hits, we check/call, miss dia. river: -.10 (why do I repeat this?)

When we hit QJ on turn, we c/r, he calls, we bet river (he missed), he calls: 6/45 x 39/44 x 12 = 1.41
When we hit QJ on turn, we c/r, he calls, we bet river (he improves), he raises, we call: 6/45 x 5/44 x -9 = -.136
When we blank the turn, we check/fold: 29/45 x -1 = -.64

Total: .854 x 3/115.5 = .02 SB EV per hand

***Note: non-pp hands TOTAL about .5 BB EV per hand

77

When blank: -.64
When Q/J on turn, c/r, he calls, we live on river (he calls 50%) = 6/45 x 34/44 x 13 = 1.33
die on river, he raises, we call = 6/45 x 10/44 x -9 = -.27
When non-AK dia. hits, we c/r he calls, we hit river, 3 times we paid big, 12 times we get paid some: 8/45 x 15/44 x 12.8 = +.77

Total: 1.19 x 6/115.5 = .06 SB EV per hand

99

Blank = -.64
When Q/J on turn, c/r, he calls, we live on river (he calls 80%) = 6/45 x 38/44 x 12.6 = 1.45
we die on river, we call raise = 6/45 x 6/44 x -9 = -.16
When non-dia A/K hits, we c/r, he calls, we hit river, he calls: 8/45 x 15/44 x 11.8 = .72
we miss river: 8/45 x 39/45 x -5 = -.77

Total: .6 x 6/115.5 = .03 SB EV per hand

TT

Blank: -.64
When Q/J turns, c/r, calls, we live on R, he calls: 6/45 x 42/44 x 13 = 1.61
Non-dia AK hits, we c/r, he calls, we hit, he calls: .72
we miss: -.77

Total: 1.56 x 6/115.5 = .08 SB EV per hand

AA

Blank: -.64
Q/J turn, no improve R: 6/45 x 39/44 x -6 = -.70
improve R: 6/45 x 5/44 x +7 (50% he 3 bet turn; I gave less raise % for this) = .14
Non-AK diamond turn: .72
-.77

Total: -.61 x 6/115.5 = -.03 SB EV per hand

KK

Total: -.03 SB EV per hand

QQ/JJ

Blank: -.64
Q turn = 1/45 x -7.5 (about 1/2 he 3 bets/1/2 he raises R) = -.16
J turn = 3/45 x -6 = -.4
Non-A/K diamond turn: 8/45 x 9/44 x 13 = .47
x 3/44 x -7 = -.09
x 1/44 x -9 = -.03

Total: -.85 x 6/115.5 = -.04 SB EV per hand

88

Blank: -.64
Q/J turn = 6/45 x -5 = -.66
Non-AK diamond turn: 8/45 x 9/44 x +15 = +.54
35/44 x -7 = -.98

Total: -1.74 x 3/115.5 = -.04 SB EV per hand

FINAL TOTALS: .76 SB EV per hand, or .38 BB EV per hand, or $3.80

Total -EV = -.14 SB (88, QQ, JJ, AA, KK)
Just one overcard situation, even a dominated one like AQ, makes it worth it.
_________________

say AA-77, AK, AQ

then peel?

total combos = 67

AA/KK = -.11 SB EV per hand
QQ/JJ = -.08
TT = .14
99 = .05
88 = -.08
77 = .11
AK = .51
AQ = .18

Total EV = .72 SB EV per hand or .36 BB EV per hand