poker tracker analysis

[runhot]

ive been tearing away at my stats, took some notes and jotted down some things. I’m only +3.12BB/100 on my last 15k hands and really feel I should be somewhere around +10BB/100. Anyhow i'd love some comments , criticisms, flames, and pointers. thanks.

15000 hands
24 / 17 / 2.5
+3.12BB / 100
MEDIOCRE

attempt to steal blinds 35%
+.35 bb/hand with chance to steal and raised
IDEAL?


When putting money in from a blind I’m +.19bb/hand- VERY GOOD?
Losing .09 bb/hand defending blind against steal- SHOULD I BE FOLDING MORE? OR IS THIS INSIGNIFICANT?

vpip / raise
button 38 29
26 23
16 15
12 11
bb 17 8
sb 28 14

SOLID?


when raised first in and the flop came heads up.. I’m only +.06bb/hand – SEEMS LOW?
when raised first in and the flop comes multi way . I’m +1.29bb/hand – SEEMS GOOD? Maybe because I’m c-betting air less frequently in a multiway pot? Should I c-bet heads up less maybe?


cold calling raises im losing .92bb/hand:
cold calling with pairs im losing 2.67bb/hand.
Cold calling with suited connectors I’m losing 3.56bb/hand
I think that a small sample is causing me to lose with pairs perhaps. Also I cant seem to figure out how my cold calls in general is such a small loss with the suited connectors and pairs being big losses (with what hands am I winning cold calls?). Anyhow, I think my overall winrate would go up dramatically if I stop cold calling with suited connectors.

I C-bet 54% and raise a donk bet 6% (both numbers seem low as I “feel” I cbet closer to 75%)

AF
Pre-2.08
Flop-3.05
Turn-2.00
River-1.87

Average without preflop-2.51
which is not high enough, a buddy of mine has a AF of in the 4-5 range. We’ve watched each other play though, I don’t know why mine is so low.. cant figure this out.

[Doug Funnie II]

Everything looks fine, I wouldn't worry about it. Over 15k hands the difference between what you won and what you think you should be winning can boil down to a handful of bad breaks. One thing I noticed is "Cold calling with suited connectors I’m losing 3.56bb/hand." I wouldn't cold call a raise with any SC under 9Ts, so maybe that's a leak. Also how much you've been winning with AA and KK would help-most of your winnings come from those 2 hands.

[Wolfram]

I am sorry, but based on your post and number of hands you've played I really don't think you're a 10ptbb/100 player. In fact, according to many vets. very few players attain even 8ptbb/100 in todays online environment.

You should be happy with anything over 0ptbb/100, and a longterm winrate of 4ptbb/100 is quite decent.

[runhot]

[ QUOTE ]
I am sorry, but based on your post and number of hands you've played I really don't think you're a 10ptbb/100 player.

[/ QUOTE ]

based on my post? why? because i question my own ability/skill?

[ QUOTE ]
In fact, according to many vets. very few players attain even 8ptbb/100 in todays online environment.

[/ QUOTE ]

that is surprising, can somebody second that?

[ QUOTE ]

You should be happy with anything over 0ptbb/100, and a longterm winrate of 4ptbb/100 is quite decent.

[/ QUOTE ]
interesting

[runhot]

[ QUOTE ]
Also how much you've been winning with AA and KK would help-most of your winnings come from those 2 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

im +3.57BB/hand with AA
and +3.85BB/hand with KK

sounds about right, right?

[Wolfram]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I am sorry, but based on your post and number of hands you've played I really don't think you're a 10ptbb/100 player.

[/ QUOTE ]

based on my post? why? because i question my own ability/skill?

[/ QUOTE ]
No, because you have a low post count. It's prejudiced, I know, but whatever. And also because you underestimate the no. of hands needed to get a statistically significant reading on your win-rate.

You might have played poker for years and have a very good understanding of this game, but it is most likely that you just started playing in the last couple of years and are overestimating your ability.

I realize now that my post was condescending and I'm sorry.

Mostly though, I think there are very few players that achieve 10PTBB/100 over a long run, so statistically it is very unlikely that you are one of them. I certainly am not.