A big straight flush draw vs a LAG OOP, 2500 NL (lots of hands inside)

[adanthar]

Background: this guy is a mid 20-ish, maybe a bit older refugee from one of the big NYC clubs. He's pretty loose PF and goes way too far with his hands, but he can read hands and is a thinking player as far as that goes. I've got some extensive history with him even though we're at opposite ends of the table:

Hand 1- I raise KQ and he calls out of the blinds. Flop AQ4, check/check. Turn T, he pots, I call. River 4, we check and he's playing the board.

Hand 2- I raise QQ from EP and he calls on the button. The flop is AQ9r, I check and he checks behind. I turn quads and check it through again (dammit.) The river is another 9, so I lead a bit under half pot just so he can call for a "split"...until he minraises, I shove and he calls with the bottom boat or whatever.

While this is going on, shaundeeb's gotten to the table and we've gotten in some 3 way chatter back and forth. 15 minutes later, he busts Shaun on the following hand:

LAG raises UTG+1 to 700 at 100/200/25, Shaun calls in MP, some other guy calls in LP and yet another guy makes it 4 way from the SB. They all check through the K64r flop. The turn is the 3s or maybe the 2s, SB bets 1K, the LAG instaraises to 2500 and Shaun instashoves 9500, at which point the LAG basically calls Shaun full of crap, calls and tables 99/Shaun misses his 12 outer.

Okay, backstory over, here's the actual hand:

LAG limps in MP, folded to me and I check K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the BB at 100/200/25. I've got 10K-ish, he has some gigantic mountain of chips.

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I lead 600, he instacalls.

Turn: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. I make it 1100, he instacalls again.

River: J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

edit: I am, like, 90% positive that one of his cards is a K, maaaybe a 9

[ArturiusX]

Why can't he have KJ/KQ type stuff?

[uclabruinz]

I definitely fire another 2500. With the preflop limp and the instacalls it's just way too likely he is on a draw that can't call, like 8h6h or something. If he makes some kind of big, heroic call, congratulate him and be patient to find a spot to value bet it all back.

[registrar]

If he's drawing with a hand that can't call, why bet? Because we can't call a bet/bluff?

Is everyone happy with leading the turn against a guy who takes his hands way too far?

[uclabruinz]

[ QUOTE ]
If he's drawing with a hand that can't call, why bet? Because we can't call a bet?

Is everyone happy with leading the turn against a guy who takes his hands way too far?

[/ QUOTE ]

We can't check/call because Kx is 90% of his range according to OP.

[uclabruinz]

[ QUOTE ]
Why can't he have KJ/KQ type stuff?

[/ QUOTE ]

He would be pretty likely to raise those hands on this extremely draw-heavy board, no?

[renodoc]

From your setup I don't see too many hands the guy is folding here.

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If he's drawing with a hand that can't call, why bet? Because we can't call a bet?

Is everyone happy with leading the turn against a guy who takes his hands way too far?

[/ QUOTE ]

We can't check/call because Kx is 90% of his range according to OP.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do people limp K8s? I don't see how he can have a king that's folding here very often. If he does, we're investing a lot of our stack to force him off a split, on the occasions that he does have K8s. This isn't to say betting the river is wrong (because we can't/won't want to snap off bluffs with K high and do want to fold A-high flush draws), but it is agaisnt this guy if we have his range as 90% kings/nines.

FWIW I'd check the turn personally with a view to check-raising sometimes depending on his bet size and reads. Check-raising the flop is another possibility.

[MLG]

this seems like an awesome place to cr all-in. seems like he rarely to never has a boat...he'll bluff a lot if you check, he'll v-bet too wide if you check but he wont call a cr without exactly QJ/JT. not to mention he's already seen you try to be tricky with a monster and you can definitely have J3/JT/QJ.

[uclabruinz]

Yeah, I guess I need OP to explain more about his read, because I don't think I would ever restrict his range like that based on a preflop limp and instacall on the flop and turn.