Odds made easy

Future Feature · #1 09-23-2007, 01:45 PM

Someone bust out the easy formulas for us new donkeys, pot odds, implied odds and EV formulas made simple.

ThomasDayton · #2 09-23-2007, 02:27 PM

Phil Gordon has a formula in his book for determining % of making hands on turn and river that I like. It is 4 times the outs on turn and 2 times the outs on river. If the pot odds are less then these % then it would be a good call. I'm new to game and I like this because it can be done quick and I think it is close enough to accrate.

Future Feature · #3 09-23-2007, 02:37 PM

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Phil Gordon has a formula in his book for determining % of making hands on turn and river that I like. It is 4 times the outs on turn and 2 times the outs on river. If the pot odds are less then these % then it would be a good call. I'm new to game and I like this because it can be done quick and I think it is close enough to accrate.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with that formula is the more outs you have the further away from being accurate your percentages are going to be.

Small Fry · #4 09-23-2007, 02:45 PM

True. That's why a simple modification to this is after doing the multiplication subtract from the product the number of outs over 8. Typical flush draw of 9 outs. 9 x 4 = 36. 9-8 = 1, so 36 - 1 = 35. A little closer to the correct answer.

But I don't understand why you asked for something simple, and then complain when you get a decent answer. Nothing overly simplified is going to be accurate, but it'll get you close. And if it's that close, then whatever decision you make is not going to be that great of an error either way.

Future Feature · #5 09-23-2007, 02:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
True. That's why a simple modification to this is after doing the multiplication subtract from the product the number of outs over 8. Typical flush draw of 9 outs. 9 x 4 = 36. 9-8 = 1, so 36 - 1 = 35. A little closer to the correct answer.

But I don't understand why you asked for something simple, and then complain when you get a decent answer. Nothing overly simplified is going to be accurate, but it'll get you close. And if it's that close, then whatever decision you make is not going to be that great of an error either way.

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1) I wasn't complaining, I was stating a fact.

2) Didn't ask for my hand percentages.

3) [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Small Fry · #6 09-23-2007, 03:08 PM

1. true enough. Based on the way I read your response, so was I... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

2. Again this is true. But without knowing the odds of making your hand the rest doesn't matter. You need to apply the odds of making your hand to the size of the pot to the size of the bet to call to figure pot odds. There is no formula for implied odds as it depends on your opponent and your estimation of his hand and how much more he might contribute in future betting rounds should you make your hand.

3. my apologies as I thought the other guy had answered your question. Perhaps you can rephrase it?

Future Feature · #7 09-23-2007, 03:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
1. true enough. Based on the way I read your response, so was I... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

2. Again this is true. But without knowing the odds of making your hand the rest doesn't matter. You need to apply the odds of making your hand to the size of the pot to the size of the bet to call to figure pot odds. There is no formula for implied odds and it depends on your opponent and your estimation of his hand and how much more he might contribute in future betting rounds should you make your hand.

3. my apologies as I thought the other guy had answered your question. Perhaps you can rephrase it?

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Np - I pretty much just wanted to know what the formulas for all of them are. For pot odds, expected value, implied odds, etc.

Small Fry · #8 09-23-2007, 03:33 PM

Pot odds - odds the pot is offering you. Pot has 3 bets in it and your opp. bets 1. pot is offering you 4:1 for you to call. Now you need to compare this with the odds of making your hand to know if making this call is good or bad. See previous posts on figuring your hand. Unfortunately that method gives you percents so you need to be able to convert. There's other methods but if you know your 35% to make you can cubtract this from 100 to get 65. Your odds are 65:35. Just a quick look should tell you this is better than 2:1 so calling with 4:1 is a no brainer.

Implied odds - see previous post for explanation.

EV - Don't know of an easy formula. It is related to the chance of you winning the hand. If I'm an 80% favorite to win a hand then my return will be 80% of every bet that goes into the pot. Sometimes I'll get it all (win) othertimes I'll get nothing (lose 20% of the time), but overall I'll win 80% of the time. Now my overall EV from this hand is going to be a based how much I have won with this hand divided by the number of times I've gotten it. This also applies to hands that have lost money overall.

Technically speaking if you are a winning player every hand has +EV as you will have a win rate based on number of hands seen, this applies to both online and live play. So the more hands you see the greater your winnings. Online though, you can increase the number of hands you see by playing multiple tables

ThomasDayton · #9 09-23-2007, 09:37 PM

If the pot offers 4 to 1 that's 1 divided by 4= .25 or 25% if you can make the hand 35% of time pot offers good odds. Seems a little easier then the 100-35=65:35 better then 2 to 1 that's better then 50% your saying and in truth it's 25%

Small Fry · #10 09-23-2007, 09:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
If the pot offers 4 to 1 that's 1 divided by 4= .25 or 25% if you can make the hand 35% of time pot offers good odds. Seems a little easier then the 100-35=65:35 better then 2 to 1 that's better then 50% your saying and in truth it's 25%

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Sorry but you're wrong. 4:1 odds converted to percent is 20. Odds are expressed as one outcome compared to another. In this case 4 times you miss one you make. Total repititions equal 5. Percent is expressed as your chance compared to the whole. In this case 1 in 5 for 20%.

Personally I find it very confusing going from one to the other, and I like to think I'm pretty good at math, so I try to only work with one method. I prefer odds. After playing for awhile the odds of hitting X number of cards have become memorized so I just need to keep track of the pot