#1
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$160 DS 1st Hand Decision with QQ -- Sanity Check
Very first hand of the DS. Stacks are all 1500. E/MP raises to 80. I make it 240 from the Button with QQ. Folded back to E/MP who shoves instantly, and I fold.
Is this standard on the first hand of this type of tourney vs. a complete unknown? Just a sanity check. |
#2
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Re: $160 DS 1st Hand Decision with QQ -- Sanity Check
I dunno man... Vs. an unknown on first hand, you could be passing up a ton of +EV here especially since it's a SNG, although I'm not really sure how these $160 DS play I think this is only my 2nd one tonight.
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#3
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Re: $160 DS 1st Hand Decision with QQ -- Sanity Check
if it's a random, i think it's definitely a call
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#4
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Re: $160 DS 1st Hand Decision with QQ -- Sanity Check
For people saying this is a call, what's an unknown's likely range here?
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#5
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Re: $160 DS 1st Hand Decision with QQ -- Sanity Check
Yeah that's what I was saying I just realized I didn't make it clear.
You could very likely have him dominated and it's just not an edge I'm willing to pass up in this tournament. Meh, TT+, AK, maybe AQ, maybe even wider? It doesn't need to be that wide for you to make this call |
#6
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Re: $160 DS 1st Hand Decision with QQ -- Sanity Check
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah that's what I was saying I just realized I didn't make it clear. You could very likely have him dominated and it's just not an edge I'm willing to pass up in this tournament. [/ QUOTE ] I think it's super unlikely I have him dominated here. JJ plays this way maybe 50% of the time. TT rarely does, at best. |
#7
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Re: $160 DS 1st Hand Decision with QQ -- Sanity Check
Kramer,
I calculated the range that you seem to be assuming and that makes this a fold. If he makes this move more often with AKo or if he makes this play with TT or crazy other hands then this is a call. I think that there is enough first hand craziness with 99-JJ/AKo/AQo to make this a call Assumptions for Kramers range: He plays this way with AKs/QQ+ 100% of the time He plays this way with AKo/JJ 50% of the time He plays this way with AQ/TT-/other 0% of the time. Note: I think that in reality he does this with the first group less than 100% of the time and second group less than 50% of the time. I also think that the third category is also a nonzero number but I think that these factors are more or less a wash so my assumptions suffice. calculations: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 38.288% 38.07% 00.21% 50851068 286752.00 { JcJh, JdJh, JhJs, AKs, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AhKc, AhKd, AhKs } Hand 1: 61.712% 61.50% 00.21% 82135140 286752.00 { QQ } Pot odds say fold IF this is his range. I widen his range and call but I don't know the general play in the $160ds nearly as well as Kramer does |
#8
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Re: $160 DS 1st Hand Decision with QQ -- Sanity Check
I think he has to be given a pretty strong range here for 4betting AI. Probably JJ+ AK weighted towards KK+.
How is this a deepstack btw? Starting stacks and blinds seem pretty standard? |
#9
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Re: $160 DS 1st Hand Decision with QQ -- Sanity Check
kramer, if he got in the DS on a 5r ticket, his range is like super wide. |
#10
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Re: $160 DS 1st Hand Decision with QQ -- Sanity Check
[ QUOTE ]
I think he has to be given a pretty strong range here for 4betting AI. Probably JJ+ AK weighted towards KK+. How is this a deepstack btw? Starting stacks and blinds seem pretty standard? [/ QUOTE ] It's a double shootout, which I think makes this a pretty easy call |
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