Laying down KK in a monster pot

[cdlarmore]

All players at table except villan are ultra loose, and overly aggressive preflop. Villan is genreally tight, and a thinking player, but is frustrated at this table, and is likely to call raises and reraise a little more given all the other morons at the table.


I have red KK UTG, I raise, UTG + 1 calls, MP 1 calls, MP2 raises, BB(Villan)calls, I Reraise, UTG +1 Calls, MP1 calls, MP2 RRs, villan calls, I cap, all call.

Flop Q92 All Spades
Villan checks, I bet, UTG +1 folds, mp1 folds, MP2 calls, BB raises, I three bet, MP2 folds, BB calls

Turn-
Qh
Villan (bb) Bets, hero?????

Does this look like a real easy laydown?

[cgrohman]

Does villian think you are one of the morons?

[andyfox]

Looks like your casino allows 5 raises (?)

Also looks like there's enough or close to enough in the pot to give you odds to spike a king. That plus the small chance you're still ahead seems enough to call.

[rafiki]

I have a question about out counting here. On the turn if I didn't mess up my count, we're getting 15 to 1 to call. I know that if we had exactly 2 outs, we need 22 to 1 to call here.

But would this player bet trip Q's into the 3 flush that had so much action ? If he would, then easy fold. But if he's now happy the board paired so he can bet a tight (99, 22), do we have 4 outs now ? in which case the pot only needs to offer 10 to 1 to call. I'm folding either way, was just curious about how some people might count outs here knowing this guy may not bet trips into a flush.

[rafiki]

also I'm not making this a standard fold to any donk. Just in this situation, I find it tough to call.

[cdlarmore]

Sorry, i messed u flop action in the confusion, MP player capped, i must have called, but yes, they do allow unlimited betting if the pot gets heads up (in the last hand i posted, we were HU, and it did go 5 bets).

Villan views me as a solid player, we have played together a few times and i left ultra profitable each time (except this one), plus im on a sick card streak at the time, have showed down AA,KK,QQ,JJ2x over the past half hour!!! (only one JJ and one AA held up, and i ended up a loser this session).

I folded the hand, and he showed me his hand generously, i will let you know what it was by day end...

I figured I had strictly 2 outs, period at this point...

[andyfox]

"I figured I had strictly 2 outs, period at this point"


Then is becomes strictly a math problem, no?

[npknhldr]

17:1 at this point.
How is it "stictly" 2 outs? I'd say his range is AA(w/ spade), (KK w/spade), QQ, AsQ, 99, 22. (i.e. YOU NEED HELP)!!!
I am almost certain that he has the latest 3 hands, the way the hand played out (AsQ, 99, 22) esp. given his passive line pf. (so 6/8 you have 4 outs, 2/8 you have 2 outs).
If so, 17:1 is enough to call.
If not, with 2 outs worst case scenario (other than QQ, which seems unlikely given action pf, f, t) a call isn't terrible here, and a fold unimproved on the river is standard, imo.
(you could justify a call by hoping for 2 bets on the river, if you spike a king?)

[The DaveR]

[ QUOTE ]
Villan is genreally tight, and a thinking player, but is frustrated at this table, and is likely to call raises and reraise a little more given all the other morons at the table.


[/ QUOTE ]

[cdlarmore]

so we like to peel one here better???