25nl: QQ big stack

BoerfSt · #1 07-25-2007, 02:31 AM

Villain is 26/15/0.83 after 84 hands.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $27.10
BB: $33.60
UTG: $25.00
MP: $42.80
Hero (CO): $47.30
BTN: $24.65

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.85, Hero raises to $3.00, 3 folds, MP calls $2.15

Flop: ($6.35) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP checks, Hero bets $5.50, MP calls $5.50

Turn: ($17.35) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP checks, Hero bets $14.00, MP raises all-in to $34.30

Pot Size: $65.65

DaycareInferno · #2 07-25-2007, 02:37 AM

i probably let it go. small pockets look to be in his pfr range, and he's not exactly an agro machine post-flop. JJ/TT isn't going to c/c flop, and you're not really getting great odds. i think all that adds up to a fold.

Mase31683 · #3 07-25-2007, 02:45 AM

Okay, I'm not great with Pokertracker numbers, still new to them. So first, I'm going to talk disregarding those numbers. When a tight player raises, then calls a re-raise, I'm putting him on a medium pair most of the time. Big pairs are going to re-pop you, and most big card holdings are too weak to stand that pressure of a re-raise when oop. So my general rule of thumb is medium to small pp's. This flop definitely fits the bill, but we have an overpair, so we're betting it. You put out a pot sized bet and got called, so what's he likely to hold now? What just calls here? would an overpair only call when you might be c-betting with AK or AQ? Probably not I think. When he checks the turn, I would check behind. I'm not usually trying to get all my money in on one pair, and that call is somewhat worrisome to me. Once he goes all in though, what can we beat? If he's bluffing then that's a heck of a bluff. Calling a pot sized bet with 2 overs, then shoving knowing full well your opponnent is going to be getting 3:1 odds? There's only 3 hands I really think he has right now, 44, 88, or 66. Maybe he played 99-JJ this way, but it just seems those hands would have gotten it all in on the flop if he liked it that much. I'm very curious to see what others think about this hand.

DaycareInferno · #4 07-25-2007, 02:53 AM

i figured the odds wrong the first time i looked at this. 3:1 makes it really hard to fold. you're so beat though. i dunno. its close.

Hoffma · #5 07-25-2007, 02:53 AM

I'm giving this up. The board pairs, and villain's AF is 0.83. This makes his bets particularly meaningful. A check-raise on any street from a villain this passive is almost always a monster. His stats suggest that he's got good hand selection and even though the sample is small, that's enough of a read for me.

LegendLength · #6 07-25-2007, 02:55 AM

Might also be A8s

osh · #7 07-25-2007, 04:23 AM

He isn't SUCH a loose player to call such a big reraise with A8s. I guess.

It's all now about reads, I guess. Does he tends to overvalue AK kinda sh*t or not? JJ?

But yeah... I guess I would bet less on the river - nice round 10 - it looks more like a valuebet either and, in case of his push and such a tough decision, folding is a bit easier, if you choose to do that.

BevillTheDevil · #8 07-25-2007, 04:29 AM

yea this spot sucks, we are probably a coinflip at best against villian's range and 84 hands isnt much but given the .83AF up to this point i think a fold is probably the correct play.

EDIT: we are gettin 3 to 1 to call tho and we are probably good 25% of the time here but given his AF does still seem really close.

dersl · #9 07-25-2007, 07:29 AM

I'd check the turn behind and call the river if he bets or bet like 1/2 pot if he checks again to me.

Genz · #10 07-25-2007, 08:52 AM

Argh. Nasty. Villain is passive. That scares me. You are both deep, so I'd be unwilling to go broke with a single pair in a reraised pot here. I think I fold. Villain's statistics don't look agressive enough for me to believe he could be doing this with 99, TT, JJ which are basically the only hands you beat at this point. I'd only call if I felt that the stats don't represent his agressiveness very well.