the 2nd nuts, first for low then for high.

Olrik · #1 10-18-2007, 01:50 PM

no specific reads. table vpip was 60+

PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Omaha/8 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, CO raises, SB calls, BB calls, UTG folds, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets, MP1 folds, Hero calls, CO calls, SB folds.

River: (11 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, CO calls.

Final Pot: 14 BB

on the flop with everybody checking i thought maybe im lucky and there is no A2 out there so i bet. CO raise indicates A2 but when the action comes back to me the pot is HUGE...

turn card is obviously really bad for my low but it gives me the 2nd nut high so i call.

river is basicly a blank for me as i play for the high only anyway so i call.

franknagaijr · #2 10-18-2007, 01:57 PM

Do you think this starting hand is not raise-worthy? Do other limit players feel this way? This seems like a prime candidate as one of those hands you raise for deception, so that your AAw and A2Wx raises are not completely transparent.

No comment on the rest. Seems ok to me, but I'm a donk.

emiderma · #3 10-18-2007, 02:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think this starting hand is not raise-worthy? Do other limit players feel this way? This seems like a prime candidate as one of those hands you raise for deception, so that your AAw and A2Wx raises are not completely transparent.

[/ QUOTE ]

This does say .10 .20 FL correct? I doubt many players are looking for betting patters, and doubt there is any need to be sneaky. This hand is kinda marginal in MP, but definitly playable, I would almost never raise here PF.

Olrik · #4 10-18-2007, 02:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]

This does say .10 .20 FL correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

correct.

Buzz · #5 10-18-2007, 05:11 PM

Hi Olrik - There's no question about your calling a bet on the river, right?

If so, let's back up from there. Playing the turn correctly is the key to this hand.

On the turn, since you're more or less fairly certain you're also going to call the river bet, and that both opponents will also contribute a like amount to the pot, there will be 8+6 = 14 big bets in the pot at the showdown, and 2 of them will be henceforth yours.

Divide the pot in two and think of your half as being 7, with 2 of those being henceforth yours. Thus you’re getting 5 to 2 implied pot odds to continue. Over the long haul with this hand/board, you will break even if you win four out of ten times. Thus you need to expect to win more than four times out of ten to have a favorable expectation. You need to win better than 40%.

And how often should you expect to win high with this hand/board? Against two opponents, I think in the neighborhood of 92%.

92% is much more favorable than the 40% you need to call. Meanwhile, neither Villain may hold 2-5-X-Y for the wheel. If neither Villain has the wheel, might you knock them both out with a raise?

Specifically, if BB has ever bet a hand and then folded when he got raised, then you definitely should exploit this weak/tight play on other previous hands by raising on the turn. By doing so, you may upgrade your hand from a probable winner for high to a possible scooper.

Winning the 9 big bets already in the pot is better than getting half of 14 bets (of which 2 will henceforth be your own). And if they both call, far out!

Raise on the turn!!!

Buzz

Olrik · #6 10-18-2007, 06:09 PM

im not so sure about raising the turn. while ppl call ALOT on those limits they rarely bet without a solid holding. so basicly by raising on the flop CO says he has A2 and there is no reason not to believe him and absolutely no way to get him to fold it.

now BB bets the turn out of a sudden saying he likes his hand too and i doubt he would do it with a 2pair.

while i like the idea behind raising the turn i simply dont see any of them folding their low and i have to give the BB credit for some kind of a flush. even tho there is only the K high flush that beats me that would be a rather thin valueraise assuming i play for half the pot (and the possibility of the river pairing). worst case scenario could even be the BB folding his babyflush (doubt he would do that) and me splitting a smaller pot with the CO.

so assuming that non of the villian would fold a low that beats me would you still raise the turn?

Buzz · #7 10-19-2007, 01:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
so assuming that non of the villian would fold a low that beats me would you still raise the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]Olrik - It's hard to say. What to do always depends on your opponents. And it's not crystal clear what these two will do if you raise.

You don't really want one opponent folding to your turn raise and the other calling with a 23XY low.

And you don't want the board pairing on the river. But if it doesn't, I think you probably have a winner. It's not certain because it's not the nuts, but I think there's a relatively low probability (~8%) that either of your opponents has the nuts for high here.

I guess I'd raise and hope they either both call or both fold. If I knew who they were, I might play it differently.

Buzz

brian64 · #8 10-19-2007, 10:50 AM

It wouldn't make much sense for the CO to raise with just A2, since no other A2 will fold but he will knock out other potential callers. Of course, I wouldn't rule it out entirely. In any case, I don't know about you, but when I have just A2 for low and no high, an ace hits the board on the turn (making a flush possible), and it goes bet/raise in front of me, I probably wouldn't call. I have been counterfeited, and there could be more betting behind me. I share a few choice words with the screen as I hit the fold button.

Given that the BB called 2 bets on the flop and then bet the turn, I would say the odds that he has the nut flush are higher than usual, but you still have a good chance, and you could end up earning half the pot with a raise on the turn.

Buzz · #9 10-19-2007, 06:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It wouldn't make much sense for the CO to raise with just A2, since no other A2 will fold but he will knock out other potential callers.

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Brian - I think raising after this flop with A2XY makes sense sometimes. It depends on XY and also on your opponents. Although you may not want to knock out opponents who will chase with losers for low and nothing for high, you do want to increase your chances to scoop.

[ QUOTE ]
Of course, I wouldn't rule it out entirely.

[/ QUOTE ]No, because whatever their reasons, many opponents will, in fact, raise here with A2XY.

[ QUOTE ]
In any case, I don't know about you, but when I have just A2 for low and no high, an ace hits the board on the turn (making a flush possible), and it goes bet/raise in front of me, I probably wouldn't call.

[/ QUOTE ]Me neither. With A2XY and no favorable odds chance for the XY, AX, AY, 2X, and/or 2Y, I'll fold here too.

[ QUOTE ]
I share a few choice words with the screen as I hit the fold button.

[/ QUOTE ]Your nut low is going to get counterfeited on the turn 6/45 or about 13%. It's at least better than getting counterfeited on the river. (which happens 6/44 or about 14%). I fully expect to have my nut low counterfeited on either the turn or river roughly one time out of four. When it happens, it doesn't phase me. It's just part of the game.

[ QUOTE ]
Given that the BB called 2 bets on the flop and then bet the turn, I would say the odds that he has the nut flush are higher than usual,

[/ QUOTE ]Before the turn, when BB calls the double bet on the second betting round, I'd guess the odds BB had an ace-flush draw were higher than usual.

To call the double bet, depending on how the betting usually goes, BB probably has a low along with some chance or chances at high, including a club draw, possibly the king flush club draw. If he does have two clubs, it's only 7/28 that he has clubs with the king.

He might bet the turn (3rd betting round) with 23K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Y without another club. If he has 23XY, he might bet without clubs. I think BB is much more likely to have 23YZ than KcXcYZ.

But all right. You can make a reasonable argument for higher than random. He's about 4% likely to have the king flush if with random cards. Let's double the 4%. That makes him about 8% likely to have the king flush. Want to still add in 4% for CO? O.K. That still makes it about 88 to 12 in favor of Hero winning with the queen flush.

You're making a mistake here if you overestimate the chance BB or CO has the nut flush. It's possible, and you're going to lose when you're up against the king flush. You're going to get re-raised and you have to call and you're going to lose three big bets instead of one.

But if both opponents call your raise, and if both have low, then you'll win one half of a big bet. You have to win half of a big bet four times as often as you lose one big bet. You have to lose 20% to have unfavorable odds to make a value raise.

And I don't think you lose that often.

You're not taking a chance on losing the whole pot by betting here. What's already in the pot is destined to go to whoever has the winner (unless your raise knocks out a better low). You already lost that if one of these opponents has the king flush and one of them has a better low (and continues). You're simply laying four to one odds (two big bets against half of a big bet) that neither of these opponents has the king flush.

I think it's a good bet.

Buzz

Jim Morgan · #10 10-19-2007, 12:21 PM

Buzz,

You say that you are against 2 opponents when you do your analysis, but I think that is not really right. There were 5 opponents who saw the flop. If, and I am assuming your math is correct, each has a roughly 4% chance of being dealt KcXc, then it is more like 20% likely that someone had KcXc.

This ignores the more or less imposible task of knowing if some opponents would (correctly IMHO) fold KcXc with little else here and so forth. At these limits, I'd guess none of them would fold it.

I do, however, agree that raising here is a good thing.. Now a live deuce behind me should fold So should 2 pair and sets. I expect the man betting out just made a low, but maybe has a K high flush I may lose a paying custumer, but I think I will promote my low or protect my high enough to make this right. Getting nitty about sucking 1 player in here is overly greedy.

Hopefully I won't face a cold-call then a re-raise. Since the cold call could easily be a mistake (caling with a weaker flush, 2 pair, or a set), I'd be forced to call down, but I no like it anymore.