100NL, ladies threesome preflop vs push

[_TKO_]

CO is 42/10/1
No stats on MP, but he seems pretty dumb in a loose way (not a reliable read)

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

Hero (SB): $87.45
BB: $100.00
UTG: $98.00
MP: $98.15
CO: $404.25
BTN: $51.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, MP calls $1.00, <font color="red">CO raises to $7.50</font>, BTN folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $21.00</font> (??), BB folds, MP calls $20.00, <font color="red">CO raises to $98.15</font>, Hero ...

[McRoNiX]

Prob bang it in. You obv dont give him much credit and seems like a donk. As hes on $400 hes prob just trying to bully table. think u see AK and JJ as much as AA KK.
Mind you I did just make that comment without considering MP although dont think thats AA or KK but the limp/call.
Let gamble here [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[ESKiMO-SiCKNE5S]

so much dead money and the guy has AK a vast majority of the time.

pretty easy call imo

[_TKO_]

FWIW, his raise to $98.15 (a strange choice) puts me exactly all-in if I call.

[fees]

calling here is fine, folding is ok too

[martijn]

meh I think its close, but against a 42/10/1 I fold here alot, this is AK best case scenario.

[fees]

how often do you 3bet?

[JackAll]

Easy fold.

His range is AA/KK/AK and we are screwed.

[ QUOTE ]
so much dead money and the guy has AK a vast majority of the time.

pretty easy call imo

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
calling here is fine, folding is ok too

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
meh I think its close, but against a 42/10/1 I fold here alot, this is AK best case scenario.

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If you want the maths why a call sux like an inverted hurricane - here it is (yes, the advice in this thread about it being close or an easy call is WHY I LOVE POKER!)



- <u>When he has AA</u> - we win 20% and lose 80%

so EV is 20%*$120 - 80%*$80 = -$40
And with 6 combos lets say we lose -$240

- <u>When he has KK</u> - same: -$240

- <u>When he has AK</u> - we win 56%

So EV is 56%*$120 - 44%*$80 = +$32

Here is where the calcs vary
There are 16 combos of AK, but I guess this type of player does this no more than half the time, so lets say 8 combos.
So 8 combos = +$256
If he pushes every time, 16 combos = +$512
If he pushes 15/16 times = +$480 (i.e. break even with AA &amp; KK)


So overall if we get it in, we are 0EV if he pushes 93.75% of the time with AK (15/16). If this type of player pushes less (and I would say HELL YEA LESS THAN 93.75% OF THESE TYPES PUSH WITH AK), then we are -EV. And the less likely this type of player pushes with AK, the more -ve our EV is.



Edit: gah, you didn't have a full stack. Screw it - change the numbers urself if you can be bothered to be 100% accurate to the hand. I guess it's pretty close anyway.

[HaiaN]

if you add air only 2x into your calculation its +EV
and there's dead money in the pot

[JackAll]

[ QUOTE ]
if you add air only 2x into your calculation its +EV
and there's dead money in the pot

[/ QUOTE ]

So you think that 2/18 times (ie more than 10% of the time) a non-tilty fairly passive 42/10/1 player will push their whole $100 in with complete air?


And if this "air" contains a single K or A, then we win 70% of the time: 70%*$120 - 30%*$80 = +$60
So we need them to have about 4 of these which means they need to have this more than 1 in 5 times.