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  #1  
Old 10-02-2007, 10:12 PM
BrunoThePug BrunoThePug is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Arizona
Posts: 882
Default 10NL: Overcards and FD vs passive calling station on flop

Big question is to call the all in. I feel like I'm behind his range but have flush outs to improve. Also, comments on flop c-bet are welcome.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $19.10
BB: $8.60
UTG: $4.35
MP: $10.40
Hero (CO): $19.45
BTN: $9.85

Reads: <font color="blue">Villain is 35/.4/.65 over 250 hands. Has shown to be a calling station. I've been abusing the two calling stations including this guy and the guy to his right with a wide range of raises, but only have shown down two monsters.

He did this flop check-raise allin move once before to another player with a huge hand. I feel like he's got a set here more often than not, as I don't think he would have limped PF with something like AA - QQ and I don't think he would be raising with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG calls $0.10, MP folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.50</font>, 2 folds, BB calls $0.40, UTG calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.55) 5 T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $0.90</font>, BB folds, <font color="red">UTG raises all-in to $3.85</font>

Pot Size: $6.30
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  #2  
Old 10-02-2007, 10:18 PM
CruS CruS is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Takin\' a smoke
Posts: 543
Default Re: 10NL: Overcards and FD vs passive calling station on flop

if he has a set, you have 27% Equity here.
The pot is 9.25 if you call.
0.27*9.25 = 2,4975, which is less than your call size hence it's a fold. But since it's so close and to narrow his range to only sets is more often than not a mistake, I would call.
Especially if your read is that he would not do this with another flushdraw.
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  #3  
Old 10-03-2007, 03:46 AM
Nick C Nick C is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 10,145
Default Re: 10NL: Overcards and FD vs passive calling station on flop

It's probably close. You don't have the odds to call when up against a set, but you easily have the odds to call when one or both of your overs is live (well, so long as they're not live because you're up against a higher flush draw).

Nevertheless, against someone this passive, I probably fold. He's somewhat short-stacked, but his stats don't really suggest he's one to get reckless with a short stack. And, also, if you don't think he'd do this with AhKh, then I guess he really wouldn't do it with 7h6h.
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