Found trips on the river. What's the play?

BrassMonkey · #1 09-06-2007, 02:41 AM

Villian is 37/15, but I don't have a lot of hands on him. Is there any value in a raise on the river here?

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, 3 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.33 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: (3.16 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (3.16 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero?

NinaWilliams · #2 09-06-2007, 02:45 AM

Bet the turn, youre ahead here tons. River is a raise you beat a worse Q, a 7 and an A and hes calling with all of them probably. I see no reason to fear the flush.

kimchi · #3 09-06-2007, 02:51 AM

I think getting re-raised would be a disaster, especially since he might have been preparing a check-raise on the turn. If not, then I doubt he's calling a raise on that river, as it could be a cold bluff.

Against a relative unknown, I'd call and take a note when I see my HUD.

BrassMonkey · #4 09-06-2007, 02:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Bet the turn, youre ahead here tons. River is a raise you beat a worse Q, a 7 and an A and hes calling with all of them probably. I see no reason to fear the flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, I meant to say in my OP that bet/folding the turn would be best, but given that I didn't...

jt1 · #5 09-06-2007, 02:55 AM

easy turn bet/fold

as played, i think the river is bet/fold also. I don't think 8-1 that he is overplaying a worse queen or on tilt is enough. I'd like to see if anyone else would fold to a river 3bet. (I doubt I would at the table, I suck)

Burnsabre · #6 09-06-2007, 03:54 AM

Easy river raise, not raising here is just playing scared in my opinion. As far as whether to call a 3 bet, I think with the flush out there I could fold at 8-1, on a drier board Id call.

timoK · #7 09-06-2007, 05:56 AM

super tricky spot.
the read/staes on villain are a bit blury. He is rather passiv preflop but how does he play postflop?

I dont see much wrong in b/f turn.

on the other hand...
villain might (bluff)-3-bet a river raise if he knows you are a thinking opponent. because by bet and 3-bet the river he screams like: "look at my flush you lucky basdart just skiped my turn c/r!"
with other words: all villains can 3-bet with the flush but a lot of tricky aggressive guys also do it as a bluff.

numbnuts007 · #8 09-06-2007, 06:05 AM

I b/f this turn then check through on the river to protect against a lone diamond from getting there. As played I think there is value in raising the river. Alot of players will bet out with air when the turn checks through. He'll have to pay off with an A or many other hands. I don't think you're giving up too much with a call though.

Gurravasa · #9 09-06-2007, 09:54 AM

I like the valuecheck on turn and I think we can raise/call river. I don't like bet/folding this turn since draws like JT with a diamond easily could c/r as a semibluff.

jr4284 · #10 09-06-2007, 12:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I like the valuecheck on turn and I think we can raise/call river. I don't like bet/folding this turn since draws like JT with a diamond easily could c/r as a semibluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please stop with the damn valuecheck. If he has the lone Kd this is a HORRIBLE play... Stox was talking about doing this when the guy likely has 6 outs, not 9-12! Here's the math for breaking even on your valuecheck:

Lone Kd (12 outs).
Cost of a free card = 26.09% * 3.16BB = .824BB
Opponent must bluff: 73.91% * bluff rate = .824BB
Bluff rate: 111.5% <-- that's kinda tough to do.

And the math for 9 outs works to 76.9%, which is still very high.

As everyone has said, b/f the turn.

Valuecheck spots come along, but this is not one of them.