NEED A LITTLE EV HELP

[Anthony Hadfield]

I have this hand.
Hero: 7d8d
Villain: QcQd

Flop: 9hJs10c

I have the nuts.

Pokertracker give villain EV % 30.4

Is this correct?

Villain has K (4 outs) and 8 (3 outs) to make winning str8

EV = (7/45)+(7/44) = % 31.465

Not to mention any (99, JJ, TT, Q9, QJ, QT, QQ) gives him extra fullhouse equity.

So how can he have EV = % 30.4 as pokertracker says.

IS PT wrong?

[gregorio]

Pokerstove gives villain's equity as 31.111.

[JH1]

The only thing I can think of is that PT might not take out all 7 cards (your 2, villain's 2, and the flop 3) when it does it's calculation and only takes out 5 (flop and villain's 2 cards) although it does remove the outs that you hold - the 8d.

So it may be calculating 7/47 + 7/46 = 14.9 + 15.2 = 30.1 Does anyone else know?

Edit: changed calculation from 7/49 + 7/48, it's too early in the morning for math.

[Anthony Hadfield]

So which is the correct way to calculate this.

In another hand with the same 7 hands i was able to calculate pretty close to PT value.

LOL What do the experts say ???

[ICMoney]

Go with PokerStove.

Hold'em Ranger gives 31.11 also.

[Anthony Hadfield]

Even if we do only 5 cards from the deck
its str8(7/47)+(6/46)+ all full house outs(6*(3/47)+(3/46)) + quads(2/47)+(1/46)
=% 31.87

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
I have this hand.
Hero: 7d8d
Villain: QcQd

Flop: 9hJs10c

I have the nuts.


[/ QUOTE ]
People mean a few different things by "the nuts." Some people just mean that they have a strong hand, but it is more common to mean a hand that is better than anything else, either taking into account the hands it blocks, or not. Here, you have the low straight, not the nut straight. You would be beaten by KQ or Q8.

[ QUOTE ]

Pokertracker give villain EV % 30.4

Is this correct?


[/ QUOTE ]
No, that's the expected wins, 301/990. The expected equity is 31.1%, which is slightly higher due to the 14/990 ties, when the turn and river cards make the board a queen-high or king-high straight.

[ QUOTE ]

Villain has K (4 outs) and 8 (3 outs) to make winning str8

EV = (7/45)+(7/44) = % 31.465


[/ QUOTE ]
This is a common mistake. The probability that the villain hits on the second card is not 7/44, since it is not an additional win if our opponent hit on the turn. You need to multiply by the probability of missing on the first card. The probability of hitting a 7 out draw on the turn or river is

7/45 + (38/45)*(7/44) = 287/990

There are 990 possible turn and river combinations when you ignore the order, or 1980 when you pay attention to order.

Those 287 times that a king or 8 comes include 273 wins, and 14 ties, when a queen also comes.

QQ can also win with 3 combinations each of 99,TT, and JJ, 1 combination of QQ, and 6 combinations each of QJ, QT, and Q9. That's 28 more wins, for a total of 273+28 = 301 wins, and 14 ties out of 990.

[metsandfinsfan]

you dont have the nuts