mono flop theory

[Guruman]

mono flops are interesting because there are unique opportunities hidden in there to chase away big hands that aren't part of the draw.

lets say I steal from the button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. a taggish small blind threebets and we take the flop headsup.

the flop comes 592[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Now I'm in an interesting position, and the small blind my end up in an incredibly awkward spot if he doesn't hold a diamond -

if he threebet with a hand like A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or black TT, then he's got a real dilemma because he has to stab, but he also may have to get out of the hand if we kick it up on the turn.

here's some interesting math:
with three diamonds already out, the odds of him having

two diamonds in his hand are
(11/47)*(10/46) = (110/2162) = about 5%

one diamond

(11/47) = 23.4%

no diamonds

(36/47) = 76.6%

no diamonds and no broadway pair:

(36/47) * (1/5.4) = (36/253.8) = 14.2% this stat is obviously skewed in the wrong direction because it includes 23o. I just present it for pure numerical value.

what's our plan?

[vmacosta]

Did you mean for us to have top pair? There is no way I'm not showing down if SB is typically agro and the turn and river are bricks.

[DawnToDusk]

Maybe if we can ignore the no diamonds and BWP stat for a second we can put a plan together knowing that probabilitie of him having a diamond.

I think one plan would be to semi-bluff a 4th diamond. We obviously have some type of hand, and they might as well, but if we have seen them lay decent hands down in situations where they could easily be behind (for example on a 4 flush board) then we could take advantage of that.

I will expand upon this very shortly and put in some other plan ideas I have. Have to go get some grub to eat and think about this for a second.

[True]

If he has AJ he will often not bet a 592 x 4 diamond board if you called / raised the flop. I think you have to factor in the likelyhood of him not having any diamonds AND betting.

True

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
If he has AJ he will often not bet a 592 x 4 diamond board if you called / raised the flop. I think you have to factor in the likelyhood of him not having any diamonds AND betting.

True

[/ QUOTE ]

[buzz_ly]

Plan? My standard line is to raise the flop. If he is tricky at all just calling opens us up to a lot of fancy plays I don't want to worry about. On a board like this I play it as straight forward as I can.

[Guruman]

woke up from a dead sleep last night realizing how off my maths were for the last calc. I'll fix it after work today if someone hasnt attempted it already.

[StellarWind]

Seems obvious to call the flop and await developments. You are never going to get a better hand than yours to fold. Nor is a flush draw going to fold because he either has two big cards or a pocket pair. Two big cards with a diamond must see the river. A pocket pair with a diamond is going to show.

Thus raising the flop is a value play and it can wait, at least until the turn and quite possibly until the next hand. It just makes no sense to raise immediately and risk turning a diamond or ace. Once we see the turn we can decide if we like our hand enough to raise.

Of course Villain may have offsuit overcards. In that case he averages about 5 outs and I don't really want to raise him out of the hand. If we are patient we have a good shot at getting AK/AQ to put another 2 BB in the pot unimproved and that's worth a little risk. The suspicion that *we* have a busted flush draw should ensure a river call.

PS: Someone mentioned an 852 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] flop. In that case move on to the next hand. No reason to get involved with an obvious worse hand and no diamond.