Theoretical question about low pp's and implied odds

[gholizad]

I have recently been going through my hand histories and I think low pp's are one of the leaks in my game.

Alright, let's start with an easy question: Let's say you are on a button with 66's and somebody who's an average TAG player makes a standard raise $100 from MP1. How much should his/your stack be to make it +EV for you to call his raise? The quick answer would be: his stack should be at least >$700 which makes the right odds for flopping a set. But that's not true b/c there are lots of times when he has AK and does not hit so gives up, has QQ and flop comes A high and he gives up or flop comes all low monotone and he does not stack off. So what is a right play with low pp's in late position then?

[paddymcg21]

If the raise is less than 10% of your stack then it's fine to see a flop IMO. If it's more then you should be more on the push or fold line of thinking

[mrcfkane]

...and then there are the times he has complete crap and takes you right out the pot or when you call the flop to test him out and his second barrell is too strong or when you hit your set , but you bust when his flush draw hits

if you base your call simply on the implied odds of stacking an opponent when you hit a set, you will lose money in the long run. try to be more creative and aggressive with your low pp's. if they are still giving you a hard time, don't call raises preflop with them unless villian is pretty damn deep or there is a multi way pot. this significantly raises your implied odds

[zooey]

This is a fantastic question. But its intractable to answer exactly. So we either:

A) Throw out guesstimates (Mine is 10% is too much against a skilled player, If I know him very well I might call with 1500, else I want 2k)

B) "It depends"

C) Get to work.
i) First define "TAG strategy" _rigidly and simply_ in this context.
ii) Find EV vs stack size for this "toy" strategy
iii) See how much the answer changes as assumptions are made more realistic.

It's going to take a lot of work, are you curious enough to spend hours on this?

Task i.1 MP1's range: JJ+ AQs+ AKo? (perhaps too tight, but wanted to err on teh side of simplicity.)

Task i.2 Classify all flops with a 6, for each of the 6(?) hands in MP1 range.

I have ideas about what comes next, but I've probably already made a mistake or 5, will check back tomorrow.

best,
zooey

[zooey]

Um hello? No more interest gholizad?

on to i.2 flop classification for MP1's pocket pairs:
AA: {xy6, A6x, x'y'6'} where ' matches suit of an A.
KK-JJ: {xy6,H6x} H is relevant honor
AQs+: {H6x,HH6, AH6, x'y'6, x'y'6'}
AKo: {H6x,HH6,AK6,x'y'6'} where ' matches A suit.

Anyone want to take a stab at figuring out
1) Did I miss an important 1st order flop
2) Relative frequencies
3) reasonable strategy and resulting pot equities for any of the flops (not Hot and cold numbers, obv.)?

If this seems daunting, I understand. And besides, the theoretical work going on in the "NL is killing limit" thread is fairly involved.

best,
zooey

[Gonso]

[ QUOTE ]
How much should his/your stack be to make it +EV for you to call his raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the 10% as a rough guide, but it's very flexible. There's a few things I try to run down before I decide to make a call.

Will this guy pay off a set with a high PP, at least enough to make the trip worthwhile? If he's hard to extract set value from in general I prefer to be deeper. What about various other hands?

Can I take the pot away without much fight if I miss? Is he kind of weak or will I be credible enough here to take it down, maybe with a check-raise or so? The more toward 'yes' the more inclined I am to call.

Is there likely to be action behind me? At some tables, the cheapest way to play the hand might be a reraise to discourage an aggressive player to try and come over the top of both of you on a steal, which elevates the risk and cost, so you'd need to be deeper than usual for the implied odds you need - although this has a lot to do with the "how likely am I to take the pot down if I miss" question.

Position, especially as it relates to the possibility of getting a free card. A likely shot at seeing the turn for free adds to the value of a hand like 44, and give you a good shot at representing a busted draw on the river to a villian with TPGK (or whatever).

But, in this particular case, the most important factor is really this guy's play. Ideally you might have some general idea as to how he'll react with an overpair, how he'll play TPTK if he connects or misses with AK, how he'll react to an A-high flop with JJ, or something like 77 (etc.) - or at least what you think he tends to do.

Cutting this post short since I'm so sleepy, good thread though

[Gonso]

Also:

Quick answer if you don't have an reads: 10 percent, unless you think there's a good chance one of the blinds will come over the top with a bet you can't call (which will help define your holding btw, making harder to collect on a set).

[LouisCyphre]

I found this thread very interesting.

[Barfunkel]

Maybe I'm too weak but for me 10% usually isn't enough, I'd have to have good reads so that I'd know I can stack the opponent every time I get my set. If there are other callers then I will call, however. What also matters are the stack sizes. If either one has a small stack I'm more inclined to call as I know that a 20bb opponent will go all the way with TPTK/OP while a 100bb opponent won't and vice versa, if I have 20bb my opponent probably won't let top pair go when I push.

Anyway, at least in the micro/small stakes games people rarely open with big raises, it's 2-6bb so small pairs are often playable. Also, there are often many callers and people often can't fold aces/2 pairs so small pp's are very profitable.

[Gonso]

Add on: the reason I only go 10% from the button, unless I expect a raise, is the possibilty that I may get a call from one (or both) of the blinds.

[ QUOTE ]
I found this thread very interesting.

[/ QUOTE ]

I missed that thread the first time around, thanks! At first glance I think those estimate are too high, because there are other ways to win the hand, other players who might be involved (etc). But good food for thought